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While the original Ait-Sahalia interest rate model has been found considerable use as a model for describing time series evolution of interest rates, it may not possess adequate specifications to explain responses of interest rates to…
In economics, risk aversion is modeled via a concave Bernoulli utility within the expected-utility paradigm. We propose a simple test of expected utility and concavity. We find little support for either: only 30 percent of the choices are…
Keeping a memory of evolving stimuli is ubiquitous in biology, an example of which is immune memory for evolving pathogens. However, learning and memory storage for dynamic patterns still pose challenges in machine learning. Here, we…
Procyclicality of historical risk measure estimation means that one tends to over-estimate future risk when present realized volatility is high and vice versa under-estimate future risk when the realized volatility is low. Out of it…
In this note, we explicitly solve the problem of maximizing utility of consumption (until the minimum of bankruptcy and the time of death) with a constraint on the probability of lifetime ruin, which can be interpreted as a risk measure on…
We propose a method for extending a given asset pricing formula to account for two additional sources of risk: the risk associated with future changes in market--calibrated parameters and the remaining risk associated with idiosyncratic…
An inferential model (IM) is a model describing the construction of provably reliable, data-driven uncertainty quantification and inference about relevant unknowns. IMs and Fisher's fiducial argument have similar objectives, but a…
We propose a mathematical model for one pattern of charts studied in technical analysis: in a phase of consolidation, the price of a risky asset goes down $\xi$ times after hitting a resistance level. We construct a mathematical strategy…
A model for decision making that generalizes Expected Utility Maximization is presented. This model, Expected Qualitative Utility Maximization, encompasses the Maximin criterion. It relaxes both the Independence and the Continuity…
We study stability properties of the expected utility function in Bayesian optimal experimental design. We provide a framework for this problem in a non-parametric setting and prove a convergence rate of the expected utility with respect to…
The aim of this paper is to propose a generalization of previous approaches in qualitative decision making. Our work is based on the binary possibilistic utility (PU), which is a possibilistic counterpart of Expected Utility (EU).We first…
This paper extends the results of the article [C. Kl\"{u}ppelberg and S. M. Pergamenchtchikov. Optimal consumption and investment with bounded downside risk for power utility functions. In Optimality and Risk: {\it Modern Trends in…
This paper studies decision problems where the decision maker's choice of action affects the probability distribution of a payoff relevant random variable. We establish sufficient conditions for the existence of an expected utility…
We consider a piecewise deterministic Markov decision process, where the expected exponential utility of total (nonnegative) cost is to be minimized. The cost rate, transition rate and post-jump distributions are under control. The state…
Within the framework proposed in this paper, we address the issue of extending the certain networks to a fuzzy certain networks in order to cope with a vagueness and limitations of existing models for decision under imprecise and uncertain…
The paper tests the validity of the critique of the fiscal theory of the price level. A stochastic general equilibrium model with continuous time is constructed. An active fiscal policy and a passive monetary policy have been set. Monetary…
We price European options in a class of models in which the volatility of the underlying risky asset depends on the short rate of interest. Our study results in an explicit pricing formula that depends on knowledge of a characteristic…
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite…
We introduce a new approach to modeling uncertainty based on plausibility measures. This approach is easily seen to generalize other approaches to modeling uncertainty, such as probability measures, belief functions, and possibility…
This article focuses on the work of O. Chanel and G. Chichilnisky (2013) on the flaws of expected utility theory while assessing the value of life. Expected utility is a fundamental tool in decision theory. However, it does not fit with the…