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Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi , Randolf Scholz , Stefan Born , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

A weighted likelihood technique for robust estimation of a multivariate Wrapped Normal distribution for data points scattered on a p-dimensional torus is proposed. The occurrence of outliers in the sample at hand can badly compromise…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-01 Giovanni Saraceno , Claudio Agostinelli , Luca Greco

We address the problem of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series through a two-fold dimension reduction procedure. The difficulty of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series lies in the curse of dimensionality. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-03 Yuan Gao , Han Lin Shang , Yanrong Yang

In this paper, we propose a Network-Weighted Functional Regression (NWFR) model, an extension of Spatially Weighted Functional Regression (SWFR) to functional data defined on network-structured settings. To asses predictive uncertainity, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Elvira Romano , Antonio Irpino , Claire Miller

Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-20 Pierre Masselot , Sophie Dabo-Niang , Fateh Chebana , Taha B. M. J. Ouarda

We propose a two-step procedure to model and predict high-dimensional functional time series, where the number of function-valued time series $p$ is large in relation to the length of time series $n$. Our first step performs an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-04 Jinyuan Chang , Qin Fang , Xinghao Qiao , Qiwei Yao

Functional data analysis offers a diverse toolkit of statistical methods tailored for analyzing samples of real-valued random functions. Recently, samples of time-varying random objects, such as time-varying networks, have been increasingly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-10 Jiazhen Xu , Andrew T. A. Wood , Tao Zou

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-25 Rakshitha Godahewa , Christoph Bergmeir , Geoffrey I. Webb , Rob J. Hyndman , Pablo Montero-Manso

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Han Lin Shang

Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Yingcun Xia , Howell Tong

Non-stationary time series with non-linear trends are frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-05 Kerry Fendick

In the functional linear regression model, many methods have been proposed and studied to estimate the slope function while the functional predictor was observed in the entire domain. However, works on functional linear regression models…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Yafei Wang , Tingyu Lai , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong , Zhongzhan Zhang

This research examines the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting time series, with a specific focus on the LLMTIME model. Despite the established effectiveness of LLMs in tasks such as text generation, language translation, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Rui Cao , Qiao Wang

Time Series Forecasting is at the core of many practical applications such as sales forecasting for business, rainfall forecasting for agriculture and many others. Though this problem has been extensively studied for years, it is still…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-23 Anirban Chatterjee , Subhadip Paul , Uddipto Dutta , Smaranya Dey

In this work, we address time-series forecasting as a computer vision task. We capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image. This approach results in predicting distributions as opposed to pointwise…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Naftali Cohen , Srijan Sood , Zhen Zeng , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Hao Cheng , Qingsong Wen , Yang Liu , Liang Sun

Modern time series forecasting methods, such as Transformer and its variants, have shown strong ability in sequential data modeling. To achieve high performance, they usually rely on redundant or unexplainable structures to model complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Jingyi Hou , Zhen Dong , Jiayu Zhou , Zhijie Liu

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-09 Tilmann Gneiting

Statistical analysis of high-dimensional functional times series arises in various applications. Under this scenario, in addition to the intrinsic infinite-dimensionality of functional data, the number of functional variables can grow with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Qin Fang , Shaojun Guo , Xinghao Qiao

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-15 Julie Novak , Scott McGarvie , Beatriz Etchegaray Garcia