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Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-21 Duncan Watson-Parris

There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Peter W. Marcy , Curtis B. Storlie

Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…

Inference of physical parameters from reference data is a well studied problem with many intricacies (inconsistent sets of data due to experimental systematic errors, approximate physical models...). The complexity is further increased when…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-09-06 Pascal Pernot , Fabien Cailliez

Snow is a crucial element of the sea ice system, affecting sea ice growth and decay due to its low thermal conductivity and high albedo. Despite its importance, present-day climate models have an idealized representation of snow, often…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-13 Ayush Prasad , Ioanna Merkouriadi , Aleksi Nummelin

Any experiment with climate models relies on a potentially large set of spatio-temporal boundary conditions. These can represent both the initial state of the system and/or forcings driving the model output throughout the experiment. Whilst…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-22 Lachlan Astfalck , Daniel Williamson , Niall Gandy , Lauren Gregoire , Ruza Ivanovic

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) (Evensen, 2009) has proven effective in quantifying uncertainty in a number of challenging dynamic, state estimation, or data assimilation, problems such as weather forecasting and ocean modeling. In these…

Analyzing classification model performance is a crucial task for machine learning practitioners. While practitioners often use count-based metrics derived from confusion matrices, like accuracy, many applications, such as weather…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Peter Xenopoulos , Joao Rulff , Luis Gustavo Nonato , Brian Barr , Claudio Silva

Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-02 Niccolò Dalmasso , Galen Vincent , Dorit Hammerling , Ann B. Lee

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Peter A. G. Watson

Key science questions, such as galaxy distance estimation and weather forecasting, often require knowing the full predictive distribution of a target variable $y$ given complex inputs $\mathbf{x}$. Despite recent advances in machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-22 Biprateep Dey , David Zhao , Brett H. Andrews , Jeffrey A. Newman , Rafael Izbicki , Ann B. Lee

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…

We provide another look at the statistical calibration problem in computer models. This viewpoint is inspired by two overarching practical considerations of computer models: (i) many computer models are inadequate for perfectly modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Xiaowu Dai , Peter Chien

This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one~thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-12-14 Michel Crucifix , Guillaume Lenoir , Takahito Mitsui

Ordinary differential equation models are nowadays widely used for the mechanistic description of biological processes and their temporal evolution. These models typically have many unknown and non-measurable parameters, which have to be…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-27 Alejandro F. Villaverde , Dilan Pathirana , Fabian Fröhlich , Jan Hasenauer , Julio R. Banga

Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-31 Shumon Koga , Miroslav Krstic

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Andrew Jesson , Alyson Douglas , Peter Manshausen , Maëlys Solal , Nicolai Meinshausen , Philip Stier , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Many papers and monographs were written about the modeling the Earth climate and its variability. However there is still an obvious need for a module that presents the fundamentals of climate modeling to students at the undergraduate level.…

Popular Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Mayer Humi

Cloud microphysical parameterizations in atmospheric models describe the formation and evolution of clouds and precipitation, a central weather and climate process. Cloud-associated latent heating is a primary driver of large and…