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Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-06 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Rilwan Adewoyin , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

Generative models excel in creating realistic images, yet their dependency on extensive datasets for training presents significant challenges, especially in domains where data collection is costly or challenging. Current data-efficient…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Yuta Mimura

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Data augmentation is often used to incorporate inductive biases into models. Traditionally, these are hand-crafted and tuned with cross validation. The Bayesian paradigm for model selection provides a path towards end-to-end learning of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Pola Schwöbel , Martin Jørgensen , Sebastian W. Ober , Mark van der Wilk

The use of latent variable models has shown to be a powerful tool for modeling probability distributions over sequences. In this paper, we introduce a new variational model that extends the recurrent network in two ways for the task of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-14 Haziq Razali , Basura Fernando

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Hachem Saddiki , Andrew C. Trapp , Patrick Flaherty

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are expressive latent variable models that can be used to learn complex probability distributions from training data. However, the quality of the resulting model crucially relies on the expressiveness of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Lars Mescheder , Sebastian Nowozin , Andreas Geiger

We introduce and motivate generative modeling as a central task for machine learning and provide a critical view of the algorithms which have been proposed for solving this task. We overview how generative modeling can be defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Alex Lamb

Meta-learning algorithms are able to learn a new task using previously learned knowledge, but they often require a large number of meta-training tasks which may not be readily available. To address this issue, we propose a method for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Wenfang Sun , Yingjun Du , Xiantong Zhen , Fan Wang , Ling Wang , Cees G. M. Snoek

Variable selection is fundamental to high-dimensional statistical modeling. Many variable selection techniques may be implemented by maximum penalized likelihood using various penalty functions. Optimizing the penalized likelihood function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 David R. Hunter , Runze Li

Variational representations of divergences and distances between high-dimensional probability distributions offer significant theoretical insights and practical advantages in numerous research areas. Recently, they have gained popularity in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Jeremiah Birrell , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Yannis Pantazis

In this paper, we study deep generative models for effective unsupervised learning. We propose VGAN, which works by minimizing a variational lower bound of the negative log likelihood (NLL) of an energy based model (EBM), where the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-08 Shuangfei Zhai , Yu Cheng , Rogerio Feris , Zhongfei Zhang

A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Aditya Grover , Jiaming Song , Alekh Agarwal , Kenneth Tran , Ashish Kapoor , Eric Horvitz , Stefano Ermon

(Neal and Hinton, 1998) recast maximum likelihood estimation of any given latent variable model as the minimization of a free energy functional $F$, and the EM algorithm as coordinate descent applied to $F$. Here, we explore alternative…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-21 Juan Kuntz , Jen Ning Lim , Adam M. Johansen

We present a latent variable model for classification that provides a novel probabilistic interpretation of neural network softmax classifiers. We derive a variational objective to train the model, analogous to the evidence lower bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-10 Shehzaad Dhuliawala , Mrinmaya Sachan , Carl Allen

Random effect models are popular statistical models for detecting and correcting spurious sample correlations due to hidden confounders in genome-wide gene expression data. In applications where some confounding factors are known,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-08 Muhammad Ammar Malik , Tom Michoel

Recent years have witnessed the rapid progress of generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, the success of the GAN models hinges on a large amount of training data. This work proposes a regularization approach for training robust GAN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Hung-Yu Tseng , Lu Jiang , Ce Liu , Ming-Hsuan Yang , Weilong Yang

We consider the problem of training probabilistic conditional random fields (CRFs) in the context of a task where performance is measured using a specific loss function. While maximum likelihood is the most common approach to training CRFs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-19 Maksims N. Volkovs , Hugo Larochelle , Richard S. Zemel

I describe a trick for training flow models using a prescribed rule as a surrogate for maximum likelihood. The utility of this trick is limited for non-conditional models, but an extension of the approach, applied to maximum likelihood of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 John S. Hyatt