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This is a survey on the use of low-degree polynomials to predict and explain the apparent statistical-computational tradeoffs in a variety of average-case computational problems. In a nutshell, this framework measures the complexity of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Alexander S. Wein

The low-degree polynomial framework has been highly successful in predicting computational versus statistical gaps for high-dimensional problems in average-case analysis and machine learning. This success has led to the low-degree…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 He Jia , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

A conjecture of Hopkins (2018) posits that for certain high-dimensional hypothesis testing problems, no polynomial-time algorithm can outperform so-called "simple statistics", which are low-degree polynomials in the data. This conjecture…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Justin Holmgren , Alexander S. Wein

We develop, discuss, and compare several inference techniques to constrain theory parameters in collider experiments. By harnessing the latent-space structure of particle physics processes, we extract extra information from the simulator.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2018-09-19 Johann Brehmer , Kyle Cranmer , Gilles Louppe , Juan Pavez

Analysis of low-degree polynomial algorithms is a powerful, newly-popular method for predicting computational thresholds in hypothesis testing problems. One limitation of current techniques for this analysis is their restriction to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Dmitriy Kunisky

Our predictions for particle physics processes are realized in a chain of complex simulators. They allow us to generate high-fidelity simulated data, but they are not well-suited for inference on the theory parameters with observed data. We…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-11-03 Johann Brehmer , Kyle Cranmer

Over the past decade, the low-degree heuristic has been used to estimate the algorithmic thresholds for a wide range of average-case planted vs null distinguishing problems. Such results rely on the hypothesis that if the low-degree moments…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Jun-Ting Hsieh , Daniel M. Kane , Pravesh K. Kothari , Jerry Li , Sidhanth Mohanty , Stefan Tiegel

The low-degree polynomial framework has emerged as a powerful tool for providing evidence of statistical-computational gaps in high-dimensional inference. For detection problems, the standard approach bounds the low-degree advantage through…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Zhangsong Li

Growth in both size and complexity of modern data challenges the applicability of traditional likelihood-based inference. Composite likelihood (CL) methods address the difficulties related to model selection and computational intractability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-12 Zhendong Huang , Davide Ferrari

In recent years much effort has been concentrated towards achieving polynomial time lower bounds on algorithms for solving various well-known problems. A useful technique for showing such lower bounds is to prove them conditionally based on…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-07-26 Isaac Goldstein , Tsvi Kopelowitz , Moshe Lewenstein , Ely Porat

We consider the problem of making nonparametric inference in a class of multi-dimensional diffusions in divergence form, from low-frequency data. Statistical analysis in this setting is notoriously challenging due to the intractability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Matteo Giordano , Sven Wang

We revisit the fundamental question of simple-versus-simple hypothesis testing with an eye towards computational complexity, as the statistically optimal likelihood ratio test is often computationally intractable in high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Ankur Moitra , Alexander S. Wein

Various problems in Engineering and Statistics require the computation of the likelihood ratio function of two probability densities. In classical approaches the two densities are assumed known or to belong to some known parametric family.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-06 George V. Moustakides , Kalliopi Basioti

Researchers currently use a number of approaches to predict and substantiate information-computation gaps in high-dimensional statistical estimation problems. A prominent approach is to characterize the limits of restricted models of…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Matthew Brennan , Guy Bresler , Samuel B. Hopkins , Jerry Li , Tselil Schramm

Many high-dimensional statistical inference problems are believed to possess inherent computational hardness. Various frameworks have been proposed to give rigorous evidence for such hardness, including lower bounds against restricted…

One fundamental goal of high-dimensional statistics is to detect or recover planted structure (such as a low-rank matrix) hidden in noisy data. A growing body of work studies low-degree polynomials as a restricted model of computation for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Tselil Schramm , Alexander S. Wein

Although probabilistic inference in a general Bayesian belief network is an NP-hard problem, computation time for inference can be reduced in most practical cases by exploiting domain knowledge and by making approximations in the knowledge…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-04 Alexander V. Kozlov , Jaswinder Pal Singh

High-dimensional statistical inference with general estimating equations are challenging and remain less explored. In this paper, we study two problems in the area: confidence set estimation for multiple components of the model parameters,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Jinyuan Chang , Song Xi Chen , Cheng Yong Tang , Tong Tong Wu

Engineering and applied sciences use models of increasing complexity to simulate the behaviour of manufactured and physical systems. Propagation of uncertainties from the input to a response quantity of interest through such models may…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-29 K. Konakli , B. Sudret

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio
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