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Driving a system from one state to another through targeted interventions is a fundamental challenge in science, yet most predictive models offer limited mechanistic insight and no principled framework for decision-making. Here we present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Zixuan Song , Uwe Mueller , Dimitris V. Manatakis

Causality is a central topic in scientific inquiry, yet for complex systems, the identification and analysis of synergistic causation remain a challenging and fundamental problem. In the context of causal relations among multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Mingzhe Yang , Shuo Wang , Jiang Zhang

The incorporation of causal inference in mediation analysis has led to theoretical and methodological advancements -- effect definitions with causal interpretation, clarification of assumptions required for effect identification, and an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-31 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Ian Schmid , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Actual causation is concerned with the question "what caused what?" Consider a transition between two states within a system of interacting elements, such as an artificial neural network, or a biological brain circuit. Which combination of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-01-11 Larissa Albantakis , William Marshall , Erik Hoel , Giulio Tononi

Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Antti Hyttinen , Frederick Eberhardt , Patrik O. Hoyer

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

We consider the problem of answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries in a causally sufficient setting where only observational data and the causal graph are available. Utilizing the recent developments in diffusion…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Patrick Chao , Patrick Blöbaum , Sapan Patel , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan

Causality is receiving increasing attention by the artificial intelligence and machine learning communities. This paper gives an example of modelling a recommender system problem using causal graphs. Specifically, we approached the causal…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Emanuele Cavenaghi , Fabio Stella , Markus Zanker

In an intelligent transportation system, the effects and relations of traffic flow at different points in a network are valuable features which can be exploited for control system design and traffic forecasting. In this paper, we define the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-24 Sina Molavipour , Germán Bassi , Mladen Čičić , Mikael Skoglund , Karl Henrik Johansson

Learning causal representations from observational and interventional data in the absence of known ground-truth graph structures necessitates implicit latent causal representation learning. Implicit learning of causal mechanisms typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Shayan Shirahmad Gale Bagi , Zahra Gharaee , Oliver Schulte , Mark Crowley

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Yingrong Wang , Haoxuan Li , Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

This paper presents an knowledge graph to assist in reasoning over signals for intelligence purposes. We highlight limitations of existing knowledge graphs and reasoning systems for this purpose, using inference of an attack using combined…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-27 Anj Simmons , Rajesh Vasa

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Russell Steele , Naftali Weinberger , Tess Baker , Ian Shrier

Accounts of human language processing have long appealed to implicit ``situation models'' that enrich comprehension with relevant but unstated world knowledge. Here, we apply causal intervention techniques to recent transformer models to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Takateru Yamakoshi , James L. McClelland , Adele E. Goldberg , Robert D. Hawkins

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-05 Mariluz Mate

Inferring the potential consequences of an unobserved event is a fundamental scientific question. To this end, Pearl's celebrated do-calculus provides a set of inference rules to derive an interventional probability from an observational…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Benjamin Heymann , Michel de Lara , Jean-Philippe Chancelier
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