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Modern time series forecasting methods, such as Transformer and its variants, have shown strong ability in sequential data modeling. To achieve high performance, they usually rely on redundant or unexplainable structures to model complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Jingyi Hou , Zhen Dong , Jiayu Zhou , Zhijie Liu

This article introduces a nonparametric approach to spectral analysis of a high-dimensional multivariate nonstationary time series. The procedure is based on a novel frequency-domain factor model that provides a flexible yet parsimonious…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Zeda Li , Ori Rosen , Fabio Ferrarelli , Robert T. Krafty

This paper proposes a new multi-linear projection method for denoising and estimation of high-dimensional matrix-variate factor time series. It assumes that a $p_1\times p_2$ matrix-variate time series consists of a dynamically dependent,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Zhaoxing Gao , Ruey S. Tsay

This work considers estimation and forecasting in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional count time series model constructed from a transformation of a latent Gaussian dynamic factor series. The estimation of the latent model parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Younghoon Kim , Marie-Christine Düker , Zachary F. Fisher , Vladas Pipiras

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-25 Degui Li , Yayi Yan , Qiwei Yao

A high-dimensional $r$-factor model for an $n$-dimensional vector time series is characterised by the presence of a large eigengap (increasing with $n$) between the $r$-th and the $(r+1)$-th largest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-09 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho

Factor models are a class of powerful statistical models that have been widely used to deal with dependent measurements that arise frequently from various applications from genomics and neuroscience to economics and finance. As data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Jianqing Fan , Kaizheng Wang , Yiqiao Zhong , Ziwei Zhu

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Chak Fung Choi , Chunxue Li , Chun Yip Yau , Zifeng Zhao

This paper studies optimal estimation of large-dimensional nonlinear factor models. The key challenge is that the observed variables are possibly nonlinear functions of some latent variables where the functional forms are left unspecified.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Yingjie Feng

Matrix time series, which consist of matrix-valued data observed over time, are prevalent in various fields such as economics, finance, and engineering. Such matrix time series data are often observed in high dimensions. Matrix factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Ruofan Yu , Rong Chen , Han Xiao , Yuefeng Han

We consider detection and localization of an abrupt break in the covariance structure of high-dimensional random data. The paper proposes a novel testing procedure for this problem. Due to its nature, the approach requires a properly chosen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-16 Valeriy Avanesov

Data can be assumed to be continuous functions defined on an infinite-dimensional space for many phenomena. However, the infinite-dimensional data might be driven by a small number of latent variables. Hence, factor models are relevant for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Israel Martínez-Hernández , Jesús Gonzalo , Graciela González-Farías

In this study, we propose a projection estimation method for large-dimensional matrix factor models with cross-sectionally spiked eigenvalues. By projecting the observation matrix onto the row or column factor space, we simplify factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-04 Long Yu , Yong He , Xin-bing Kong , Xinsheng Zhang

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-23 Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

We consider the estimation of approximate factor models for time series data, where strong serial and cross-sectional correlations amongst the idiosyncratic component are present. This setting comes up naturally in many applications, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Jiahe Lin , George Michailidis

Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yuhan Tian , Abolfazl Safikhani

This paper investigates change point inference in high-dimensional time series. We begin by introducing a max-$L_2$-norm based test procedure, which demonstrates strong performance under dense alternatives. We then establish the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Xiaoyi Wang , Jixuan Liu , Long Feng

High-dimensional matrix-variate time series data are becoming widely available in many scientific fields, such as economics, biology, and meteorology. To achieve significant dimension reduction while preserving the intrinsic matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-20 Elynn Y. Chen , Ruey S. Tsay , Rong Chen

In this paper, we present a change point detection method for detecting change points in multivariate nonstationary wind speed time series. The change point method identifies changes in the covariance structure and decomposes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Sakitha Ariyarathne , Harsha Gangammanavar , Raanju R. Sundararajan

Recurrent event time data arise in many studies, including biomedicine, public health, marketing, and social media analysis. High-dimensional recurrent event data involving many event types and observations have become prevalent with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-02 Fangyi Chen , Yunxiao Chen , Zhiliang Ying , Kangjie Zhou
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