Related papers: Some Results on Tighter Bayesian Lower Bounds on t…
Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such…
We provide finite sample bounds on the Normal approximation to the law of the least squares estimator of the projection parameters normalized by the sandwich-based standard errors. Our results hold in the increasing dimension setting and…
A natural way to quantify uncertainties in Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) is through Bayesian methods. That said, sampling from the joint posterior distribution of GMMs via standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) imposes several…
We propose the Bayesian bridge estimator for regularized regression and classification. Two key mixture representations for the Bayesian bridge model are developed: (1) a scale mixture of normals with respect to an alpha-stable random…
We identify the critical deviation scale governing Bayesian evidence accumulation in regular parametric testing. Under integrated Bayes risk with zero-one loss, the risk-optimal rejection boundary lies in a moderate deviation regime, with a…
Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…
It has historically been a challenge to perform Bayesian inference in a design-based survey context. The present paper develops a Bayesian model for sampling inference in the presence of inverse-probability weights. We use a hierarchical…
This study explores the estimation of parameters in a matrix-valued linear regression model, where the $T$ responses $(Y_t)_{t=1}^T \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times p}$ and predictors $(X_t)_{t=1}^T \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times q}$ satisfy the…
This paper explores the Ziv-Zakai bound (ZZB), which is a well-known Bayesian lower bound on the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE). First, it is shown that the ZZB holds without any assumption on the distribution of the estimand, that is,…
The widely used quantum Cramer-Rao bound (QCRB) sets a lower bound for the mean square error of unbiased estimators in quantum parameter estimation, however, in general QCRB is only tight in the asymptotical limit. With a limited number of…
Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…
Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…
The infinite width limit of random neural networks is known to result in Neural Networks as Gaussian Process (NNGP) (Lee et al. (2018)), characterized by task-independent kernels. It is widely accepted that larger network widths contribute…
Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding outputs the hypothesis with the highest expected utility over the model distribution for some utility function. It has been shown to improve accuracy over beam search in conditional language generation…
This paper explores Bayesian lower bounds on the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) that belong to the Ziv-Zakai (ZZ) family. The ZZ technique relies on connecting the bound to an M-ary hypothesis testing problem. Three versions of the ZZ…
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…
We propose two families of asymptotically local minimax lower bounds on parameter estimation performance. The first family of bounds applies to any convex, symmetric loss function that depends solely on the difference between the estimate…
We study central limit theorems for linear statistics in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with product priors. Unlike the existing literature where the focus is on posterior contraction, we work under a non-contracting regime…
Bayesian networks are one of the most widely used classes of probabilistic models for risk management and decision support because of their interpretability and flexibility in including heterogeneous pieces of information. In any applied…
In this paper, we study error bounds for {\em Bayesian quadrature} (BQ), with an emphasis on noisy settings, randomized algorithms, and average-case performance measures. We seek to approximate the integral of functions in a {\em…