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In this paper we present BayesLDM, a system for Bayesian longitudinal data modeling consisting of a high-level modeling language with specific features for modeling complex multivariate time series data coupled with a compiler that can…

This paper proposes a fast two-stage variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm to estimate unrestricted panel spatial autoregressive models. Using Dirichlet-Laplace priors, we are able to uncover the spatial relationships between cross-sectional…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-23 Deborah Gefang , Stephen G. Hall , George S. Tavlas

We review theory and methodology of the class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) that provide flexibility, parsimony and scalability of multivariate time series analysis. Discussion includes core theoretical aspects…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Mike West , Luke Vrotsos

Bayesian Neural Networks provide a principled framework for uncertainty quantification by modeling the posterior distribution of network parameters. However, exact posterior inference is computationally intractable, and widely used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Alfredo Reichlin , Miguel Vasco , Danica Kragic

Multivariate spatio-temporal data arise more and more frequently in a wide range of applications; however, there are relatively few general statistical methods that can readily use that incorporate spatial, temporal and variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-15 Elynn Yi Chen , Qiwei Yao , Rong Chen

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-25 Alexandros Beskos , Joseph Dureau , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

Interpretable classification of time series presents significant challenges in high dimensions. Traditional feature selection methods in the frequency domain often assume sparsity in spectral density matrices (SDMs) or their inverses, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Sarbojit Roy , Malik Shahid Sultan , Hernando Ombao

High-dimensional linear models have been widely studied, but the developments in high-dimensional generalized linear models, or GLMs, have been slower. In this paper, we propose an empirical or data-driven prior leading to an empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-09 Yiqi Tang , Ryan Martin

We describe an apparatus for subgradient-following of the optimum of convex problems with variational penalties. In this setting, we receive a sequence $y_i,\ldots,y_n$ and seek a smooth sequence $x_1,\ldots,x_n$. The smooth sequence needs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Kai-Chia Mo , Shai Shalev-Shwartz , Nisæl Shártov

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito

Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial across various industries, where accurate extraction of complex periodic and trend components can significantly enhance prediction performance. However, existing models often struggle to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Yulong Wang , Yushuo Liu , Xiaoyi Duan , Kai Wang

Multivariate time series with missing values are common in areas such as healthcare and finance, and have grown in number and complexity over the years. This raises the question whether deep learning methodologies can outperform classical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-21 Vincent Fortuin , Dmitry Baranchuk , Gunnar Rätsch , Stephan Mandt

Efficiently modeling spatio-temporal (ST) physical processes and observations presents a challenging problem for the deep learning community. Many recent studies have concentrated on meticulously reconciling various advantages, leading to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Hao Wu , Yuxuan Liang , Wei Xiong , Zhengyang Zhou , Wei Huang , Shilong Wang , Kun Wang

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Amin Wu

Multivariate functional data present theoretical and practical complications which are not found in univariate functional data. One of these is a situation where the component functions of multivariate functional data are positive and are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Cody Carroll , Hans-Georg Müller

Predicting future frames of a video sequence has been a problem of high interest in the field of Computer Vision as it caters to a multitude of applications. The ability to predict, anticipate and reason about future events is the essence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-04 Jasmeen Kaur , Sukhendu Das

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-24 Markus Kaiser , Clemens Otte , Thomas Runkler , Carl Henrik Ek

The quantitative formulation of evolution equations is the backbone for prediction, control, and understanding of dynamical systems across diverse scientific fields. Besides deriving differential equations for dynamical systems based on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-01-06 Tim W. Kroll , Oliver Kamps

This paper proposes a Bayesian downlink channel estimation algorithm for time-varying massive MIMO networks. In particular, the quantization effects at the receiver are considered. In order to fully exploit the sparsity and time…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Jianpeng Ma , Shun Zhang , Hongyan Li , Feifei Gao , Zhu Han