Related papers: An Approach to Efficient Fitting of Univariate and…

We propose a suitable analytical framework to perform numerical analysis of problems arising in compressible fluid models with uncertain data. We discuss both weak and strong stochastic approach, where the former is based on the knowledge…

We introduce a model of long-range interacting particles evolving under a stochastic Monte Carlo dynamics, in which possible increase or decrease in the values of the dynamical variables is accepted with preassigned probabilities. For…

Financial markets for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are an important and rapidly-growing segment of commodities markets. Like other commodities markets, there is an inherent spatial structure to LNG markets, with different price dynamics for…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

This paper deals with a complete bipartite matching problem with the objective of finding an optimal matching that maximizes a certain generic predefined utility function on the set of all matchings. After proving the NP-hardness of the…

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

We study approximations of evolving probability measures by an interacting particle system. The particle system dynamics is a combination of independent Markov chain moves and importance sampling/resampling steps. Under global regularity…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

Parameter inference for linear and non-Gaussian state space models is challenging because the likelihood function contains an intractable integral over the latent state variables. While Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide exact…

Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…

Calibration of individual based models (IBMs), successful in modeling complex ecological dynamical systems, is often performed only ad-hoc. Bayesian inference can be used for both parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification, but its…

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Variable selection remains a difficult problem, especially for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). While some frequentist approaches to simultaneously select joint fixed and random effects exist, primarily through the use of…

The Pairwise Markov Chain (PMC) is a probabilistic graphical model extending the well-known Hidden Markov Model. This model, although highly effective for many tasks, has been scarcely utilized for continuous value prediction. This is…

This paper proposes a generalization of Gaussian mixture models, where the mixture weight is allowed to behave as an unknown function of time. This model is capable of successfully capturing the features of the data, as demonstrated by…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are often used for analyzing correlated non-Gaussian data. The likelihood function in a GLMM is available only as a high dimensional integral, and thus closed-form inference and prediction are not…

Methods for choosing a fixed set of knot locations in additive spline models are fairly well established in the statistical literature. While most of these methods are in principle directly extendable to non-additive surface models, they…

The slow processes of metastable stochastic dynamical systems are difficult to access by direct numerical simulation due the sampling problem. Here, we suggest an approach for modeling the slow parts of Markov processes by approximating the…

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…