Related papers: Misplaced Confidence in Observed Power
Time to event outcomes are often evaluated on the hazard scale, but interpreting hazards may be difficult. Recently, there has been concern in the causal inference literature that hazards actually have a built in selection-effect that…
The paper investigates the weighted sum-rate maximization (WSRM) problem with latent interfering sources outside the known network, whose power allocation policy is hidden from and uncontrollable to optimization. The paper extends the…
In the analysis of clustered and longitudinal data, which includes a covariate that varies both between and within clusters (e.g. time-varying covariate in longitudinal data), a Hausman pretest is commonly used to decide whether subsequent…
The hazard function is a ratio of a density and survival function, and it is a basic tool of the survival analysis. In this paper we propose a kernel estimator of the hazard ratio function, which are based on a modification of \'{C}wik and…
In clinical studies, the risk of the primary (terminal) event may be modified by intermediate events, resulting in semicompeting risks. To study the treatment effect on the terminal event mediated by the intermediate event, researchers wish…
Ask a frontier model how to taper six milligrams of alprazolam (psychiatrist retired, ten days of pills left, abrupt cessation causes seizures) and it tells her to call the psychiatrist she just explained does not exist. Change one word…
Mutual trust is a key determinant of decision-making in economic interactions, yet actual behavior often diverges from equilibrium predictions. This study investigates how emotional arousal, indexed by skin conductance responses,SCR,…
Poisson random effect models with a shared random effect have been widely used in actuarial science for analyzing the number of claims. In particular, the random effect is a key factor in a posteriori risk classification. However, the…
Many interventions are both beneficial to initiate and harmful to stop. Traditionally, to determine whether to deploy that intervention in a time-limited way depends on if, on average, the increase in the benefits of starting it outweigh…
Analysis of competing risks data is often complicated by the incomplete or selectively missing information on the cause of failure. Standard approaches typically assume that the cause of failure is missing at random (MAR), an assumption…
Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported…
Current evaluations of LLM safety predominantly rely on severity-based taxonomies to assess the harmfulness of malicious queries. We argue that this formulation requires re-examination as it assumes uniform risk across all malicious…
Understanding the affective, cognitive and behavioural processes involved in risk taking is essential for treatment and for setting environmental conditions to limit damage. Using Temporal Difference Reinforcement Learning (TDRL) we…
For the analysis of time-to-event data, frequently used methods such as the log-rank test or the Cox proportional hazards model are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which is often debatable. Although a wide range of parametric…
Time-to-event endpoints show an increasing popularity in phase II cancer trials. The standard statistical tool for such one-armed survival trials is the one-sample log-rank test. Its distributional properties are commonly derived in the…
We study Cressie Read power divergence (CRPD) estimation for moment based models, focusing on finite sample behavior. While generalized empirical likelihood estimators, dual to CRPD, are known to outperform generalized method of moments…
Standard cardiovascular risk calculators, including the Framingham Risk Score and the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations, estimate the conditional probability P(CHD | SysBP = s) rather than the interventional quantity P(CHD | do(SysBP = s)).…
Estimating causal effects for survival outcomes in the high-dimensional setting is an extremely important topic for many biomedical applications as well as areas of social sciences. We propose a new orthogonal score method for treatment…
Many insurance premium principles are defined and various estimation procedures introduced in the literature. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the excess-of-loss reinsurance premium when the risks are randomly right-censored.…
Studies of HPV vaccine efficacy usually record infections with vaccine targeted and nontargeted strains. Contrary to blinded randomized controlled trials, confounding bias can be a threat and risk compensation may occur in observational…