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Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

This paper deals with uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution detection in deep learning using Bayesian and ensemble methods. It proposes a practical solution to the lack of prediction diversity observed recently for standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Antoine de Mathelin , François Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models, especially in safety-critical domains. While exact Bayesian inference offers a principled approach, it is often computationally infeasible for deep neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Aslak Djupskås , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

Deep Learning is becoming an increasingly important way to produce accurate hydrological predictions across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainty estimations are critical for actionable hydrological forecasting, and while…

The Monte Carlo dropout method has proved to be a scalable and easy-to-use approach for estimating the uncertainty of deep neural network predictions. This approach was recently applied to Fault Detection and Di-agnosis (FDD) applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-11 Baihong Jin , Yingshui Tan , Yuxin Chen , Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Estimating epistemic uncertainty of models used in low-latency applications and Out-Of-Distribution samples detection is a challenge due to the computationally demanding nature of uncertainty estimation techniques. Estimating model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Akshatha Kamath , Dwaraknath Gnaneshwar , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks. However, they tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Yibo Hu , Latifur Khan

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

Convolutional neural networks have shown to achieve superior performance on image segmentation tasks. However, convolutional neural networks, operating as black-box systems, generally do not provide a reliable measure about the confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-20 Alexander Treiss , Jannis Walk , Niklas Kühl

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Research on Knowledge Tracing (KT) models traditionally focuses on improving predictive accuracy. However, responsible real-world deployment requires models to know when to defer uncertain predictions to a human teacher. We introduce an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Joshua Mitton , Prarthana Bhattacharyya , Ralph Abboud , Simon Woodhead

Deep neural networks are becoming increasingly powerful and large and always require more labelled data to be trained. However, since annotating data is time-consuming, it is now necessary to develop systems that show good performance while…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-30 Mélodie Boillet , Christopher Kermorvant , Thierry Paquet

Uncertainty Sampling is an Active Learning strategy that aims to improve the data efficiency of machine learning models by iteratively acquiring labels of data points with the highest uncertainty. While it has proven effective for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Bertrand Charpentier , Antonio Oroz , Stephan Günnemann

Supervised masking approaches in the time-frequency domain aim to employ deep neural networks to estimate a multiplicative mask to extract clean speech. This leads to a single estimate for each input without any guarantees or measures of…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-16 Huajian Fang , Dennis Becker , Stefan Wermter , Timo Gerkmann

Advances in deep neural network (DNN) based molecular property prediction have recently led to the development of models of remarkable accuracy and generalization ability, with graph convolution neural networks (GCNNs) reporting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-09 Gabriele Scalia , Colin A. Grambow , Barbara Pernici , Yi-Pei Li , William H. Green

Uncertainty approximation in text classification is an important area with applications in domain adaptation and interpretability. One of the most widely used uncertainty approximation methods is Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Andreas Nugaard Holm , Dustin Wright , Isabelle Augenstein