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Related papers: Self-Attentive Hawkes Processes

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Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

Reading is a process that unfolds across space and time, alternating between fixations where a reader focuses on a specific point in space, and saccades where a reader rapidly shifts their focus to a new point. An ansatz of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Francesco Ignazio Re , Andreas Opedal , Glib Manaiev , Mario Giulianelli , Ryan Cotterell

The rapid growth of social media has been witnessed during recent years as a result of the prevalence of the internet. This trend brings an increasing interest in simulating social media which can provide valuable insights to both academic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Ao Qu , Ismael Lemhadri

We address the problem of learning Granger causality from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. In particular, we are interested in discovering instance-level causal structures in an unsupervised manner. Instance-level…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Dongxia Wu , Tsuyoshi Idé , Aurélie Lozano , Georgios Kollias , Jiří Navrátil , Naoki Abe , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-16 Jing Wu , Owen G. Ward , James Curley , Tian Zheng

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Student procrastination and cramming for deadlines are major challenges in online learning environments, with negative educational and well-being side effects. Modeling student activities in continuous time and predicting their next study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Mengfan Yao , Siqian Zhao , Shaghayegh Sahebi , Reza Feyzi Behnagh

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

Temporal point process serves as an essential tool for modeling time-to-event data in continuous time space. Despite having massive amounts of event sequence data from various domains like social media, healthcare etc., real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Manisha Dubey , P. K. Srijith , Maunendra Sankar Desarkar

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-13 Patrick J. Laub , Thomas Taimre , Philip K. Pollett

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuxin Chang , Alex Boyd , Cao Xiao , Taha Kass-Hout , Parminder Bhatia , Padhraic Smyth , Andrew Warrington

In the last decade, Hawkes processes have received a lot of attention as good models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks. In this paper we consider a variant of this process, the Age Dependent Hawkes process, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-08 Mads Bonde Raad , Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Guanhua Fang , Ganggang Xu , Haochen Xu , Xuening Zhu , Yongtao Guan

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Irregular and asynchronous event sequences are prevalent in many domains, such as social media, finance, and healthcare. Traditional temporal point processes (TPPs), like Hawkes processes, often struggle to model mutual inhibition and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Anningzhe Gao , Shan Dai , Yan Hu

Asynchronous time series, also known as temporal event sequences, are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. Temporal point processes(TPPs) are the standard method for modeling such data. Existing TPP models have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yan Wang , Zhixuan Chu , Tao Zhou , Caigao Jiang , Hongyan Hao , Minjie Zhu , Xindong Cai , Qing Cui , Longfei Li , James Y Zhang , Siqiao Xue , Jun Zhou

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Farnood Salehi , William Trouleau , Matthias Grossglauser , Patrick Thiran

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ahmer Raza , Hudson Smith