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The scale and terms of aggregate borrowing in an economy depend on the manner in which wealth is distributed across potential creditors with heterogeneous beliefs about the future. This distribution evolves over time as uncertainty is…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
Many statistical models have high accuracy on test benchmarks, but are not explainable, struggle in low-resource scenarios, cannot be reused for multiple tasks, and cannot easily integrate domain expertise. These factors limit their use,…
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are nowadays a crucial quantitative tool for policy-makers. However, they did not emerge spontaneously. They are built upon previously established ideas in Economics and relatively recent…
Comparable to the traditional notion of stability in system dynamics, resilience is typically measured in a way that assesses the quality of a system's response, for example the speed of its recovery. We present a broadly applicable…
This paper analyzes stability conditions for wholesale electricity markets under real-time retail pricing and realistic consumption models with memory, which explicitly take into account previous electricity prices and consumption levels.…
This paper studies a recently proposed continuous-time distributed self-appraisal model with time-varying interactions among a network of $n$ individuals which are characterized by a sequence of time-varying relative interaction matrices.…
The emergence and evolution of real-world systems have been extensively studied in the last few years. However, equally important phenomena are related to the dynamics of systems' collapse, which has been less explored, especially when they…
The dynamics of power consumption constitutes an essential building block for planning and operating energy systems based on renewable energy supply. Whereas variations in the dynamics of renewable energy generation are reasonably well…
The production of goods we buy on a daily basis accounts for a large portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Although consumers have the power to influence industries' behavior through their demand, making sustainable purchases is challenging.…
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
Recent studies highlight economic complexity's role in mitigating fiscal crises, often measured via an economy's trade structure. Trade, however, is just one facet of an economy's structure and omits critical innovative activities like…
Investment herding, a phenomenon where households mimic the decisions of others rather than relying on their own analysis, has significant effects on financial markets and household behavior. Excessive investment herding may reduce…
Operational disruptions in retail payments can induce behavioral responses that outlast technical recovery and may amplify liquidity stress. We propose a multi-agent model linking card payment outages to trust dynamics, channel avoidance,…
The environmental change and its effects, caused by human influences and natural ecological processes over the last decade, prove that it is now more prudent than ever to transition to more sustainable models of energy consumption…
One of the major barriers for the retailers is to understand the consumption elasticity they can expect from their contracted demand response (DR) clients. The current trend of DR products provided by retailers are not consumer-specific,…
When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…
Relapse, the recurrence of a disorder following a symptomatic remission, is a frequent outcome in substance abuse disorders. Some of our prior results suggested that relapse, in the context of abusive drinking, is likely an "unbeatable"…
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…
Individual and community psychology plays an important role in disaster management as human behavior exhibit diverse risk perceptions, recognition of the threats that exists, positive and negative emotions, panic, anger, rumor, stress and…