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Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Pedro Conde , Rui L. Lopes , Cristiano Premebida

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning has traditionally focused on the prediction stage, aiming to quantify confidence in model outputs while treating learned representations as deterministic and reliable by default. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Yiyao Yang

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

Neural Networks have high accuracy in solving problems where it is difficult to detect patterns or create a logical model. However, these algorithms sometimes return wrong solutions, which become problematic in high-risk domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Miguel N. Font , José L. Jorro-Aragoneses , Carlos M. Alaíz

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here…

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Despite the recent progress in deep neural networks (DNNs), it remains challenging to explain the predictions made by DNNs. Existing explanation methods for DNNs mainly focus on post-hoc explanations where another explanatory model is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-04 Wei Qian , Chenxu Zhao , Yangyi Li , Fenglong Ma , Chao Zhang , Mengdi Huai

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty across a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Alan Wu , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled and natural framework for proper uncertainty quantification in the context of deep learning. They address the typical challenges associated with conventional deep learning methods, such as…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Zahra Moslemi , Yang Meng , Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

When incorporating deep neural networks into robotic systems, a major challenge is the lack of uncertainty measures associated with their output predictions. Methods for uncertainty estimation in the output of deep object detectors (DNNs)…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Ali Harakeh , Michael Smart , Steven L. Waslander

In this paper, we revisit techniques for uncertainty estimation within deep neural networks and consolidate a suite of techniques to enhance their reliability. Our investigation reveals that an integrated application of diverse…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Yuting Li , Yingyi Chen , Xuanlong Yu , Dexiong Chen , Xi Shen

Deep neural networks (DNN) are versatile parametric models utilised successfully in a diverse number of tasks and domains. However, they have limitations---particularly from their lack of robustness and over-sensitivity to out of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 John Mitros , Brian Mac Namee

Increasingly sophisticated mathematical modelling processes from Machine Learning are being used to analyse complex data. However, the performance and explainability of these models within practical critical systems requires a rigorous and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Xingyu Zhao , Alec Banks , James Sharp , Valentin Robu , David Flynn , Michael Fisher , Xiaowei Huang
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