Related papers: Predictions for solar flares activity in solar cyc…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
The ongoing 11-year cycle of solar activity is considerably less vigorous than the three cycles before. It was preceded by a very deep activity minimum with a low polar magnetic flux, the source of the toroidal field responsible for solar…
Solar flares are 3D phenomenon but modelling a flare in 3D, including many of the important processes in the chromosphere, is a computational challenge. Accurately modelling the chromosphere is important, even if the transition region and…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…
Computed color indices and spectral shapes for individual stars are routinely compared with observations for essentially all spectral types, but absolute fluxes are rarely tested. We can confront observed irradiances with the predictions…
Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…
The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
In this paper, solar cycles 21 to 24 were compared using complex network analysis. A network was constructed for these four solar cycles to facilitate the comparison. In these networks, the nodes represent the active regions of the Sun that…
We report our first results on comparing the variations of the solar internal rotation with solar activity, as predicted by non-linear solar dynamo modelling, with helioseismic measurements using the SOHO MDI data.
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…
It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 back-reacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…
A long-term variation is detected in the north-south differences of the solar activity, the phase difference of hemispheric cycles alternates by four Schwabe cycles. This variability is demonstrated by two different methods. It can be the…
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…
Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…
The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…
The waiting time statistics of solar flares provides clues for the underlying physical mechanisms. However, flares occurring on the far-side have been missing in the statistics. In the 2024 May and June, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft…