Related papers: Predictions for solar flares activity in solar cyc…
The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant…
I summarize 40 years of development of the standard solar model that is used to predict solar neutrino fluxes and then describe the current uncertainties in the predictions. I will also attempt to explain why it took so long, about three…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
We use helioseismic data from ground and space-based instruments to analyze how solar rotation has changed since the beginning of solar Cycle 23 with emphasis on studying the differences between Cycles 23 and 24. We find that the nature of…
The solar interior is probed by the properties of the Sun's acoustic oscillations (p-modes) observed on the solar surface. The frequencies of these p-modes measured in the last three decades show long term variation similar to the 11 year…
It is shown that the description of the solar cycle that takes into account the odd zonal harmonic of the solar magnetic field allows us to deepen our knowledge of two important aspects of the solar activity. First, to clarify and expand…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
Aims. In this paper, we investigate the temporal evolution and north-south (N-S) asymmetry in the occurrence of solar flares during cycle 21, 22, and 23, and compare the results with traditional solar activity indices. Methods. The flare…
The issue of predicting solar flares is one of the most fundamental in physics, addressing issues of plasma physics, high-energy physics, and modelling of complex systems. It also poses societal consequences, with our ever-increasing need…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…
Further development of the work of Obridko et al. [1] based on recent data confirms the assumption that the 25th cycle of solar activity is a medium-low cycle. Its height is expected to be $125.2\pm5.6$, and the expected date of the maximum…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…
Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern…
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
The pattern of migrating zonal flow bands associated with the solar cycle, known as the torsional oscillation, has been monitored with continuous global helioseismic observations by the Global Oscillations Network Group, together with those…
It is well accepted that the solar cycle originates from a magnetohydrodynamics dynamo deep inside the Sun. Many dynamo models have long been proposed based on a lot of observational constraints. In this paper, using 342 NSO/Kitt Peak solar…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…