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Individual-level effectiveness and healthcare resource use (HRU) data are routinely collected in trial-based economic evaluations. While effectiveness is often expressed in terms of utility scores derived from some health-related quality of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Andrea Gabrio

A central issue of many statistical learning problems is to select an appropriate model from a set of candidate models. Large models tend to inflate the variance (or overfitting), while small models tend to cause biases (or underfitting)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-25 Jie Ding , Enmao Diao , Jiawei Zhou , Vahid Tarokh

Modern Neural Architecture Search methods have repeatedly broken state-of-the-art results for several disciplines. The super-network, a central component of many such methods, enables quick estimates of accuracy or loss statistics for any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Kevin Alexander Laube , Andreas Zell

Learning a Bayesian networks with bounded treewidth is important for reducing the complexity of the inferences. We present a novel anytime algorithm (k-MAX) method for this task, which scales up to thousands of variables. Through extensive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-08 Mauro Scanagatta , Giorgio Corani , Marco Zaffalon , Jaemin Yoo , U Kang

Adaptive inference schemes reduce the cost of machine learning inference by assigning smaller models to easier examples, attempting to avoid invocation of larger models when possible. In this work we explore a simple, effective adaptive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Steven Kolawole , Don Dennis , Ameet Talwalkar , Virginia Smith

Predicting query execution time is a fundamental issue underlying many database management tasks. Existing predictors rely on information such as cardinality estimates and system performance constants that are difficult to know exactly. As…

Databases · Computer Science 2014-08-29 Wentao Wu , Xi Wu , Hakan Hacıgümüş , Jeffrey F. Naughton

We present a new inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation for estimating parameters governing an entire network based on link-traced samples of that network. To do this, we first take summary statistics from an observed…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-17 Jack Davis , Steven K. Thompson

Selectivity estimation is important in query optimization, however accurate estimation is difficult when predicates are complex. Instead of existing database synopses and statistics not helpful for such cases, we introduce a new approach to…

Databases · Computer Science 2018-06-25 Jun Hyung Shin

Query cost estimation is a classical task for database management. Recently, researchers apply the AI-driven model to implement query cost estimation for achieving high accuracy. However, two defects of feature design lead to poor cost…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Yu Yan , Hongzhi Wang , Junfang Huang , Dake Zhong , Man Yang , Kaixin Zhang , Tao Yu , Tianqing Wan

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) is fundamental in Bayesian phylogenetic inference to properly account for autocorrelation in MCMC samples. While methods for continuous parameters are well established, the discrete and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-05 Jonathan Klawitter , Lars Berling , Jordan Douglas , Dong Xie , Alexei J. Drummond

This paper compares three approaches to the problem of selecting among probability models to fit data (1) use of statistical criteria such as Akaike's information criterion and Schwarz's "Bayesian information criterion," (2) maximization of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-04 William B. Poland , Ross D. Shachter

Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Andreea-Ingrid Cross

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yuta Nakahara , Shota Saito , Naoki Ichijo , Koki Kazama , Toshiyasu Matsushima

Decision trees and their ensembles are popular in machine learning as easy-to-understand models. Several techniques have been proposed in the literature for learning tree-based classifiers, with different techniques working well for data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Maria-Florina Balcan , Dravyansh Sharma

Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Jiafeng Chen

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior…

We report on work towards flexible algorithms for solving decision problems represented as influence diagrams. An algorithm is given to construct a tree structure for each decision node in an influence diagram. Each tree represents a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Michael C. Horsch , David L. Poole

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Whereas acausal Bayesian networks represent probabilistic independence, causal Bayesian networks represent causal relationships. In this paper, we examine Bayesian methods for learning both types of networks. Bayesian methods for learning…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman

Modern language models (LMs) increasingly require two critical resources: computational resources and data resources. Data selection techniques can effectively reduce the amount of training data required for fine-tuning LMs. However, their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Hongming Li , Yang Liu , Chao Huang