Related papers: Non-coupling from the past
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…
State-switching models such as hidden Markov models or Markov-switching regression models are routinely applied to analyse sequences of observations that are driven by underlying non-observable states. Coupled state-switching models extend…
Establishing cutoff, an abrupt transition from "not mixed" to "well mixed", is a classical topic in the theory of mixing times for Markov chains. Interest has grown recently in determining not only the existence of cutoff and the order of…
Poissonian ensembles of Markov loops on a finite graph define a random graph process in which the addition of a loop can merge more than two connected components. We study Markov loops on the complete graph derived from a simple random walk…
In nuclear fusion and fission, fluctuation and dissipation arise due to the coupling of collective degrees of freedom with internal excitations. Close to the barrier, both quantum, statistical and non-Markovian effects are expected to be…
We study a spatial Markovian particle system with pairwise coagulation, a spatial version of the Marcus--Lushnikov process: according to a coagulation kernel $K$, particle pairs merge into a single particle, and their masses are united. We…
Many biological and medical questions can be modeled using time-to-event data in finite-state Markov chains, with the phase-type distribution describing intervals between events. We solve the inverse problem: given a phase-type…
We describe parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that propagate a collective ensemble of paths, with local covariance information calculated from neighboring replicas. The use of collective dynamics eliminates multiplicative noise and…
Monte Carlo sampling methods often suffer from long correlation times. Consequently, these methods must be run for many steps to generate an independent sample. In this paper a method is proposed to overcome this difficulty. The method…
We study the split Conformal Prediction method when applied to Markovian data. We quantify the gap in terms of coverage induced by the correlations in the data (compared to exchangeable data). This gap strongly depends on the mixing…
Expanding upon the rich history of algebraic techniques in probability, we show the existence of and construct a Markov chain using the Hopf square map on a quantum group that is both non-commutative and non-cocommutative. This extends the…
We study the Markovianity of a composite system and its subsystems. We show how the dissipative nature of a subsystem's dynamics can be modified without having to change properties of the composite system environment. By preparing different…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…
The tail chain of a Markov chain can be used to model the dependence between extreme observations. For a positive recurrent Markov chain, the tail chain aids in describing the limit of a sequence of point processes $\{N_n,n\geq1\}$,…
We define a Markov process on the partitions of $[n]=\{1,\ldots,n\}$ by drawing a sample in $[n]$ at each time of a Poisson process, by merging blocks that contain one of these points and by leaving all other blocks unchanged. This…
We prove stochastic stability of chaotic maps for a general class of Markov random perturbations (including singular ones) satisfying some kind of mixing conditions. One of the consequences of this statement is the proof of Ulam's…
We start by introducing avoidance coupling of Markov chains, with an overview of existing results. We then introduce and motivate a new notion, uniform avoidance coupling. We show that the only Markovian avoidance coupling on a cycle is of…
This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (non-countable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which…
Classical coupling constructions arrange for copies of the \emph{same} Markov process started at two \emph{different} initial states to become equal as soon as possible. In this paper, we consider an alternative coupling framework in which…
Time series datasets often contain heterogeneous signals, composed of both continuously changing quantities and discretely occurring events. The coupling between these measurements may provide insights into key underlying mechanisms of the…