Related papers: Adaptive Pricing in Insurance: Generalized Linear …
Modeling policyholders lapse behaviors is important to a life insurer since lapses affect pricing, reserving, profitability, liquidity, risk management, as well as the solvency of the insurer. Lapse risk is indeed the most significant life…
Hyper-parameter optimization remains as the core issue of Gaussian process (GP) for machine learning nowadays. The benchmark method using maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and gradient descent (GD) is impractical for processing big data…
Estimation of the response probability distributions of computer simulators in the presence of randomness is a crucial task in many fields. However, achieving this task with guaranteed accuracy remains an open computational challenge,…
We present the Mixed Likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), capable of modeling data with attributes of different types. The standard formulation of GP-LVM assumes that each observation is drawn from a Gaussian…
Accurately predicting when and where ambulance call-outs occur can reduce response times and ensure the patient receives urgent care sooner. Here we present a novel method for ambulance demand prediction using Gaussian process regression…
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) encompass large class of statistical models, with a vast range of applications areas. GLMM extends the linear mixed models allowing for different types of response variable. Three most common data…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer an attractive method for regression over small, structured and correlated datasets. However, their deployment is hindered by computational costs and limited guidelines on how to apply GPs beyond simple…
We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…
Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a popular regression method, which unlike most Machine Learning techniques, provides estimates of uncertainty for its predictions. These uncertainty estimates however, are based on the assumption that…
This paper evaluates Machine Learning (ML) in establishing ratemaking for new insurance schemes. To make the evaluation feasible, we established expected indemnities as premiums. Then, we use ML to forecast indemnities using a minimum set…
The problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) in an online fashion is of interest, due to new applications in biology, economics and social sciences. The offline version of the problem, where…
Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…
Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely used for regression and system identification due to their flexibility and ability to quantify uncertainty. However, their computational complexity limits their applicability to small datasets. Moreover…
Motion planning has been an important research topic in achieving safe and flexible maneuvers for intelligent vehicles. However, it remains challenging to realize efficient and optimal planning in the presence of uncertain model dynamics.…
Generalized linear models (GLMs) are fundamental tools for statistical modeling, with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) serving as the classical approach for parameter inference. While MLE performs well for canonical GLMs, it can become…
An important issue in model-based control design is that an accurate dynamic model of the system is generally nonlinear, complex, and costly to obtain. This limits achievable control performance in practice. Gaussian process (GP) based…
The estimation of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) plays a pivotal role in intelligent manufacturing systems and Industry 4.0 technologies. While recent advancements have improved RUL prediction, many models still face interpretability and…
The Gaussian process (GP) regression can be severely biased when the data are contaminated by outliers. This paper presents a new robust GP regression algorithm that iteratively trims the most extreme data points. While the new algorithm…