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We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

Given $iid$ observations from an unknown absolute continuous distribution defined on some domain $\Omega$, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Dangna Li , Kun Yang , Wing Hung Wong

The problem is in the estimation of the fraction of population with a sensitive characteristic. We consider the Item Count Technique an indirect method of questioning designed to protect respondents' privacy. The exact confidence interval…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-21 Stanislaw Jaworski , Wojciech Zielinski

When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performance and lack of fairness. Previous…

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

In this paper we tackle the problem of comparing distributions of random variables and defining a mean pattern between a sample of random events. Using barycenters of measures in the Wasserstein space, we propose an iterative version as an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-12 Emmanuel Boissard , Thibaut Le Gouic , Jean-Michel Loubes

This is a review of statistical inference methodology for stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion, otherwise called fractional diffusions. The first section reviews the theory needed to rigorously define them.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Pablo Ramses Alonso-Martin , Horatio Boedihardjo , Anastasia Papavasiliou

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-05 Cun-Hui Zhang , Stephanie S. Zhang

We consider the estimation of rare-event probabilities using sample proportions output by naive Monte Carlo or collected data. Unlike using variance reduction techniques, this naive estimator does not have a priori relative efficiency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-19 Yuanlu Bai , Henry Lam

Based on the median and the median absolute deviation estimators, and the Hodges-Lehmann and Shamos estimators, robustified analogues of the conventional $t$-test statistic are proposed. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-24 Chanseok Park , Min Wang

Inequalities may appear in many models. They can be as simple as assuming a parameter is nonnegative, possibly a regression coefficient or a treatment effect. This paper focuses on the case that there is only one inequality and proposes a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-17 Gregory Fletcher Cox

In this work we introduce a novel approach, based on sampling, for finding assignments that are likely to be solutions to stochastic constraint satisfaction problems and constraint optimisation problems. Our approach reduces the size of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-22 Roberto Rossi , Brahim Hnich , S. Armagan Tarim , Steven Prestwich

In this paper, we show how concentration inequalities for Gaussian quadratic form can be used to propose exact confidence intervals of the Hurst index parametrizing a fractional Brownian motion. Both cases where the scaling parameter of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-16 Jean-Christophe Breton , Jean-François Coeurjolly

We consider the problem of finding a proper confidence interval for the mean based on a single observation from a normal distribution with both mean and variance unknown. Portnoy (2017) characterizes the scale-sign invariant rules and shows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-15 Stephen Portnoy

An algorithm for sampling exactly from the normal distribution is given. The algorithm reads some number of uniformly distributed random digits in a given base and generates an initial portion of the representation of a normal deviate in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-02-01 Charles F. F. Karney

Samples with a common mean but possibly different, ordered variances arise in various fields such as interlaboratory experiments, field studies or the analysis of sensor data. Estimators for the common mean under ordered variances typically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Ansgar Steland , Yuan-Tsung Chang

Various statistical tests have been developed for testing the equality of means in matched pairs with missing values. However, most existing methods are commonly based on certain distributional assumptions such as normality, 0-symmetry or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-02 Lubna Amro , Markus Pauly

In many statistical problems, several estimators are usually available for interval estimation of a parameter of interest, and hence, the selection of an appropriate estimator is important. The criterion for a good estimator is to have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-10 Richard Minkah , Tertius de Wet

We present large sample results for partitioning-based least squares nonparametric regression, a popular method for approximating conditional expectation functions in statistics, econometrics, and machine learning. First, we obtain a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-20 Matias D. Cattaneo , Max H. Farrell , Yingjie Feng

We consider a random interval splitting process, in which the splitting rule depends on the empirical distribution of interval lengths. We show that this empirical distribution converges to a limit almost surely as the number of intervals…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-20 Pascal Maillard , Elliot Paquette
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