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Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

In real-world regression tasks, datasets frequently exhibit imbalanced distributions, characterized by a scarcity of data in high-complexity regions and an abundance in low-complexity areas. This imbalance presents significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Donghe Chen , Jiaxuan Yue , Tengjie Zheng , Lanxuan Wang , Lin Cheng

Convergence of Extremum Seeking (ES) algorithms has been established in the limit of small gains. Using averaging theory and contraction analysis, we propose a framework for computing explicit bounds on the departure of the ES scheme from…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Gabriel Bousquet , Jean-Jacques Slotine

Risk prediction models are often advertised as deterministic functions that map covariates to predicted risks. However, they are typically trained using finite samples, and as such, their predictions are inherently uncertain. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Abdollah Safari , Paul Gustafson , Mohsen Sadatsafavi

A Bayesian inference method for problems with small samples and sparse data is presented in this paper. A general type of prior ($\propto 1/\sigma^{q}$) is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior for inference problems under small…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-14 Jingjing He , Xuefei Guan

Recent advances in Bayesian models for random partitions have led to the formulation and exploration of Exchangeable Sequences of Clusters (ESC) models. Under ESC models, it is the cluster sizes that are exchangeable, rather than the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-08 Keith Levin , Brenda Betancourt

We introduce a general form of sequential Monte Carlo algorithm defined in terms of a parameterized resampling mechanism. We find that a suitably generalized notion of the Effective Sample Size (ESS), widely used to monitor algorithm…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-08 Nick Whiteley , Anthony Lee , Kari Heine

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-28 Diego Casadei

Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterize three different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analyzing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Till Hoffmann , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Gathering the most information by picking the least amount of data is a common task in experimental design or when exploring an unknown environment in reinforcement learning and robotics. A widely used measure for quantifying the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-17 Johannes Kulick , Robert Lieck , Marc Toussaint

In this paper, a Bayesian approach is developed for simultaneously comparing multiple experimental treatments with a common control treatment in an exploratory clinical trial. The sample size is set to ensure that, at the end of the study,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 John Whitehead , Faye Cleary , Amanda Turner

When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performance and lack of fairness. Previous…

A commonly observed pattern in machine learning models is an underprediction of the target feature, with the model's predicted target rate for members of a given category typically being lower than the actual target rate for members of that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Owen O'Neill , Fintan Costello

A new algorithm named EXPected Similarity Estimation (EXPoSE) was recently proposed to solve the problem of large-scale anomaly detection. It is a non-parametric and distribution free kernel method based on the Hilbert space embedding of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-18 Markus Schneider , Wolfgang Ertel , Günther Palm

Prediction rule ensembles (PREs) are a relatively new statistical learning method, which aim to strike a balance between predictive accuracy and interpretability. Starting from a decision tree ensemble, like a boosted tree ensemble or a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-10-02 Marjolein Fokkema , Carolin Strobl

In this paper, we develop an {\em epsilon admissible subsets} (EAS) model selection approach for performing group variable selection in the high-dimensional multivariate regression setting. This EAS strategy is designed to estimate a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Salil Koner , Jonathan P Williams

We propose a sampling scheme suitable for reducing a data set prior to selecting a hypothesis with minimum empirical risk. The sampling only considers a subset of the ultimate (unknown) hypothesis set, but can nonetheless guarantee that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-06-25 Paul Mineiro , Nikos Karampatziakis

Replication studies are essential for assessing the credibility of claims from original studies. A critical aspect of designing replication studies is determining their sample size; a too small sample size may lead to inconclusive studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-14 Samuel Pawel , Guido Consonni , Leonhard Held

Information extracted from electrohysterography recordings could potentially prove to be an interesting additional source of information to estimate the risk on preterm birth. Recently, a large number of studies have reported near-perfect…