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Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-09 Lin Gui , Victor Veitch

The choice of making an intervention depends on its potential benefit or harm in comparison to alternatives. Estimating the likely outcome of alternatives from observational data is a challenging problem as all outcomes are never observed,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-18 Yao Zhang , Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

Overlap, also known as positivity, is a key condition for causal treatment effect estimation. Many popular estimators suffer from high variance and become brittle when features differ strongly across treatment groups. This is especially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Oscar Clivio , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks , David Bruns-Smith , Chris Holmes , Avi Feller

The average treatment effect (ATE), the mean difference in potential outcomes under treatment and control, is a canonical causal effect. Overlap, which says that all subjects have non-zero probability of either treatment status, is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Herbert P. Susmann , Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

Estimating causal effects under exogeneity hinges on two key assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. Researchers often argue that unconfoundedness is more plausible when more covariates are included in the analysis. Less discussed is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Alexander D'Amour , Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Lihua Lei , Jasjeet Sekhon

Limited overlap between treated and control groups is a key challenge in observational analysis. Standard approaches like trimming importance weights can reduce variance but introduce a fundamental bias. We propose a sensitivity framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Yuanzhe Ma , Yian Huang , Hongseok Namkoong

Estimating externally valid causal effects is a foundational problem in the social and biomedical sciences. Generalizing or transporting causal estimates from an experimental sample to a target population of interest relies on an overlap…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Melody Huang

A key condition for obtaining reliable estimates of the causal effect of a treatment is overlap (a.k.a. positivity): the distributions of the features used to perform causal adjustment cannot be too different in the treated and control…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Most causal inference studies rely on the assumption of overlap to estimate population or sample average causal effects. When data exhibit non-overlap, estimation of these estimands requires reliance on model specifications, due to poor…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-17 Rachel C. Nethery , Fabrizia Mealli , Francesca Dominici

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

In most nonrandomized observational studies, differences between treatment groups may arise not only due to the treatment but also because of the effect of confounders. Therefore, causal inference regarding the treatment effect is not as…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Debashis Ghosh

Sample overlap is a common issue in evidence synthesis in the field of medical research, particularly when integrating findings from observational studies utilizing existing databases such as registries. Due to the general inaccessibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Zhentian Zhang , Tim Friede , Tim Mathes

Inverse probability weights are commonly used in epidemiology to estimate causal effects in observational studies. Researchers can typically focus on either the average treatment effect or the average treatment effect on the treated with…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-05 Eli Ben-Michael , Luke Keele

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés

The growing availability of large health databases has expanded the use of observational studies for comparative effectiveness research. Unlike randomized trials, observational studies must adjust for systematic differences in patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Haidong Lu , Fan Li , Laine E. Thomas , Fan Li

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , Nathan Kallus , David Sontag

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are common in many different scientific fields including epidemiology, ecology, and economics. As with all observational studies, such designs often suffer from unmeasured confounding, which generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs , Arvid Sjölander
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