Related papers: A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Ben…
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…
Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…
Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…
A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single…
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…
A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to…
Solar flares are the largest energy-release events in the Solar System, allowing us to study fundamental physical phenomena under extreme conditions. Those include magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, radiation transport, and…
This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al.…
Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. Only by realtime forecast we can…
Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…
In this article, we discuss a verification study of an operational solar flare forecast in the Regional Warning Center (RWC) Japan. The RWC Japan has been issuing four-categorical deterministic solar flare forecasts for a long time. In this…
We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…