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Calibration of expensive simulation models involves an emulator based on simulation outputs generated across various parameter settings to replace the actual model. Noisy outputs of stochastic simulation models require many simulation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Özge Sürer

Causal effect estimation often succeeds cost-constrained sequential data collection. This work considers multivariate linear front-door models with arbitrary unobserved confounding on treatment and response. We optimize the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Leopold Mareis , Mathias Drton

Reaction rates are a complicated function of molecular interactions, which can be selected from vast chemical design spaces. Seeking the design that optimizes a rate is a particularly challenging problem since the rate calculation for any…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-18 Alex Albaugh , Todd R. Gingrich

The celebrated multi-armed bandit problem in decision theory models the basic trade-off between exploration, or learning about the state of a system, and exploitation, or utilizing the system. In this paper we study the variant of the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2013-06-19 Sudipto Guha , Kamesh Munagala

Empirical design in reinforcement learning is no small task. Running good experiments requires attention to detail and at times significant computational resources. While compute resources available per dollar have continued to grow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Andrew Patterson , Samuel Neumann , Martha White , Adam White

In sequential experiments, subjects become available for the study over a period of time, and covariates are often measured at the time of arrival. We consider the setting where the sample size is fixed but covariate values are unknown…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-28 Mia S. Tackney , David C. Woods , Ilya Shpitser

We study the problem of sequential experimental design to estimate the parametric component of a partially linear model with a Gaussian process prior. We consider an active learning setting where an experimenter adaptively decides which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Shunsuke Horii

Space filling designs are central to studying complex systems in various areas of science. They are used for obtaining an overall understanding of the behaviour of the response over the input space, model construction and uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-10 Shirin Golchi , Jason L. Loeppky

Massively parallel desktop computing capabilities now well within the reach of individual academics modify the environment for posterior simulation in fundamental and potentially quite advantageous ways. But to fully exploit these benefits…

Computation · Statistics 2013-04-17 Garland Durham , John Geweke

In mathematical modeling, several different functional forms can often be used to fit a data set equally well, especially if the data is sparse. In such cases, these mathematically different but similar looking functional forms are…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Sarah K. Wyse , Maria M. Martignoni , May Anne Mata , Eric Foxall , Rebecca C. Tyson

Manufacturing advanced materials and products with a specific property or combination of properties is often warranted. To achieve that it is crucial to find out the optimum recipe or processing conditions that can generate the ideal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Hamed Khosravi , Taofeeq Olajire , Ahmed Shoyeb Raihan , Imtiaz Ahmed

Sequential Bayesian experimental design typically assumes that the number of experiments is fixed before data collection begins. In practical campaigns, however, experimentation may need to terminate early because additional measurements…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Chen Cheng , Xun Huan

The Win Ratio has gained significant traction in cardiovascular trials as a novel method for analyzing composite endpoints (Pocock and others, 2012). Compared with conventional approaches based on time to the first event, the Win Ratio…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Baoshan Zhang , Yuan Wu

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Dose-finding trials are a key component of the drug development process and rely on a statistical design to help inform dosing decisions. Triallists wishing to choose a design require knowledge of operating characteristics of competing…

Computation · Statistics 2025-03-11 Michael Sweeting , Daniel Slade , Dan Jackson , Kristian Brock

In pattern mining, sequential rules provide a formal framework to capture the temporal relationships and inferential dependencies between items. However, the discovery process is computationally intensive. To obtain mining results…

Databases · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Wensheng Gan , Gengsen Huang , Junyu Ren , Philip S. Yu

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Özge Sürer , Matthew Plumlee , Stefan M. Wild

The goal of experiment design is to select the inputs of a dynamical system in such a way that the resulting data contain sufficient information for system identification and data-driven control. This paper investigates the problem of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Jiwei Wang , Simone Baldi , Henk J. van Waarde

Computer experiments have become an indispensable alternative to complex physical and engineering experiments. The Kriging model is the most widely used surrogate model, with the core goal of minimizing the discrepancy between the surrogate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Ruonan Zheng , Min-Qian Liu , Yongdao Zhou , Xuan Chen