Related papers: Solar cycle prediction
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…
Polar fields at the minimum of a sunspot cycle -- which are a manifestation of the radial component of the Sun's poloidal field -- are deemed to be the best indicator of the strength of the toroidal component, and hence the amplitude of the…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…
Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
The paper by Popova et al. presents an oversimplified mathematical model of solar activity with a claim of predicting/postdicting it for several millennia ahead/backwards. The work contains several flaws devaluating the results: (1) the…
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…
Solar polar fields are essential for the solar cycle and the heliospheric magnetic field. Cycle 25 is now entering its declining phase, the critical period during which most of the cycle's polar fields are established. Therefore, reliable…
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
Stellar magnetic fields are produced by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in their interior -- which relies on the interaction between plasma flows and magnetic fields. The Sun, being a well-observed star, offers an unique…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
We test recent claims that the polar field at the end of Cycle 23 was weakened by a small number of large, abnormally oriented regions, and investigate what this means for solar cycle prediction. We isolate the contribution of individual…
The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the…
One obvious feature of the solar cycle is its variation from one cycle to another. In this article, we review the dynamo models for the long-term variations of the solar cycle. By long-term variations, we mean the cycle modulations beyond…
We discuss the potential use of an algebraic method to compute the value of the solar axial dipole moment at solar minimum, widely considered to be the most reliable precursor of the activity level in the next solar cycle. The method…