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Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Johannes O. Royset

Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-18 Joe Marion , Liz Lorenzi , Cora Allen-Savietta , Scott Berry , Kert Viele

The family of admissible positions in a transaction costs model is a random closed set, which is convex in case of proportional transaction costs. However, the convexity fails, e.g. in case of fixed transaction costs or when only a finite…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-15 Andreas Haier , Ilya Molchanov

In this paper, we further develop the approach, originating in [14 (arXiv:1311.6765),20 (arXiv:1604.02576)], to "computation-friendly" hypothesis testing and statistical estimation via Convex Programming. Specifically, we focus on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-16 Anatoli Juditsky , Arkadi Nemirovski

In modern engineering, computer simulations are a popular tool to analyse, design, and optimize systems. Furthermore, concepts of uncertainty and the related reliability analysis and robust design are of increasing importance. Hence, an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 R. Schöbi , B. Sudret

We consider the problem of convex function chasing with black-box advice, where an online decision-maker aims to minimize the total cost of making and switching between decisions in a normed vector space, aided by black-box advice such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-27 Nicolas Christianson , Tinashe Handina , Adam Wierman

Convex regression is a method for estimating the convex function from a data set. This method has played an important role in operations research, economics, machine learning, and many other areas. However, it has been empirically observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Zhiqiang Liao , Sheng Dai , Eunji Lim , Timo Kuosmanen

The problem of stock hedging is reconsidered in this paper, where a put option is chosen from a set of available put options to hedge the market risk of a stock. A formula is proposed to determine the probability that the potential loss…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-04 Guanghui Huang , Jing Xu , Wenting Xing

We propose a Bayesian uncertainty quantification method for large-scale imaging inverse problems. Our method applies to all Bayesian models that are log-concave, where maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimation is a convex optimization problem.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-07 Audrey Repetti , Marcelo Pereyra , Yves Wiaux

This paper addresses risk averse constrained optimization problems where the objective and constraint functions can only be computed by a blackbox subject to unknown uncertainties. To handle mixed aleatory/epistemic uncertainties, the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Charles Audet , Jean Bigeon , Romain Couderc , Michael Kokkolaras

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

The experimental evaluation of algorithms results in a large set of data which generally do not follow a normal distribution or are not heteroscedastic. Besides, some of its entries may be missing, due to the inability of an algorithm to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-16 Iago A Carvalho

In this paper we model benchmark beating with the increasing convex order (ICX order). The mean constraint in the mean-variance theory of portfolio selection can be regarded as beating a constant. We then investigate the problem of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-06 Jianming Xia

Algorithmic reproducibility measures the deviation in outputs of machine learning algorithms upon minor changes in the training process. Previous work suggests that first-order methods would need to trade-off convergence rate (gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-11 Liang Zhang , Junchi Yang , Amin Karbasi , Niao He

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

We consider minimization of a smooth nonconvex function with inexact oracle access to gradient and Hessian (without assuming access to the function value) to achieve approximate second-order optimality. A novel feature of our method is that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-27 Shuyao Li , Stephen J. Wright

Learning high-dimensional distributions is often done with explicit likelihood modeling or implicit modeling via minimizing integral probability metrics (IPMs). In this paper, we expand this learning paradigm to stochastic orders, namely,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-11 Carles Domingo-Enrich , Yair Schiff , Youssef Mroueh

We examine a constrained Markov decision process under uncertain transition probabilities, with the uncertainty modeled as deviations from observed transition probabilities. We construct the uncertainty set associated with the deviations…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 V Varagapriya

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

A new notion of stochastic ordering is introduced to compare multivariate stochastic risk models with respect to extreme portfolio losses. In the framework of multivariate regular variation comparison criteria are derived in terms of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-10-26 Georg Mainik , Ludger Rüschendorf