Related papers: Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mix…
We propose modeling raw functional data as a mixture of a smooth function and a highdimensional factor component. The conventional approach to retrieving the smooth function from the raw data is through various smoothing techniques.…
VAR models are a type of multi-equation model that have been widely applied in econometrics. With the arrival of Big Data, huge amounts of data are being collected in numerous fields, making feasible the application of these kind of…
Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…
We reinterpret Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models as iterative refinement models to identify which design choices drive their quality-efficiency trade-off. Instead of treating VAR only as next-scale autoregression, we formalise it as a…
We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…
Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional…
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…
This study introduces Variational Automatic Relevance Determination (VARD), a novel approach tailored for fitting sparse additive regression models in high-dimensional settings. VARD distinguishes itself by its ability to independently…
Nowadays Big Data are becoming more and more important. Many sectors of our economy are now guided by data-driven decision processes. Big Data and business intelligence applications are facilitated by the MapReduce programming model while,…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…
We introduce a novel application of Support Vector Machines (SVM), an important Machine Learning algorithm, to determine the beginning and end of recessions in real time. Nowcasting, "forecasting" a condition about the present time because…
There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to…
Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive…
Mixed-effect models are widely used for the analysis of correlated data such as longitudinal data and repeated measures. In this article, we study an approach to the nonparametric estimation of mixed-effect models. We consider models with…
We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…
Variable projection solves structured optimization problems by completely minimizing over a subset of the variables while iterating over the remaining variables. Over the last 30 years, the technique has been widely used, with empirical and…
We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard…
A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is commonly used to model multivariate time series, and there are many penalized methods to handle high dimensionality. However in terms of spatio-temporal data, most methods do not take the spatial and…
Support Vector Machines (SVM), a popular machine learning technique, has been applied to a wide range of domains such as science, finance, and social networks for supervised learning. Whether it is identifying high-risk patients by…
In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If…