English
Related papers

Related papers: Dealing with Stochastic Volatility in Time Series …

200 papers

We consider parallel asynchronous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for problems where we can leverage (stochastic) gradients to define continuous dynamics which explore the target distribution. We outline a solution strategy for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-09 Jost Tobias Springenberg , Aaron Klein , Stefan Falkner , Frank Hutter

In this article, we describe a {\tt R} package for sampling from an empirical likelihood-based posterior using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Empirical likelihood-based methodologies have been used in Bayesian modeling of many problems…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-09-07 Dang Trung Kien , Neo Han Wei , Sanjay Chaudhuri

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-02 Georgi Dinolov , Abel Rodriguez , Hongyun Wang

Traditional regression models assume stationary relationships between predictors and responses, failing to capture the spatial heterogeneity present in many environmental, epidemiological, and ecological processes. To address this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Justice Akuoko-Frimpong , Edward Shao , Jonathan Ta

We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-09 P. Dellaportas , A. Plataniotis , M. K. Titsias

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-01 Eric Jacquier , Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Sayar Karmakar , Arkaprava Roy

This chapter presents an introduction to Markovian modeling for the analysis of sequence data. Contrary to the deterministic approach seen in the previous sequence analysis chapters, Markovian models are probabilistic models, focusing on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Jouni Helske , Satu Helske , Mohammed Saqr , Sonsoles López-Pernas , Keefe Murphy

We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-16 Ward Melis , Giovanni Samaey

Tissues are often heterogeneous in their single-cell molecular expression, and this can govern the regulation of cell fate. For the understanding of development and disease, it is important to quantify heterogeneity in a given tissue. We…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-21 Lisa Amrhein , Christiane Fuchs

The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-06 Taylor R. Brown

This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 K. Triantafyllopoulos

A hierarchical logistic regression Bayesian model is proposed and implemented in R to model the probability of patient improvement corresponding to any given dosage of a certain drug. RStan is used to obtain samples from the posterior…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Dorsa Mohammadi Arezooji

We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-23 Osman Doğan , Raffaele Mattera , Philipp Otto , Süleyman Taşpınar

Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-09 Jerzy P. Rydlewski , Małgorzata Snarska

This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-06 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Michael Pfarrhofer , Thomas O. Zörner

Spatially and temporally varying coefficient (STVC) models are currently attracting attention as a flexible tool to explore the spatio-temporal patterns in regression coefficients. However, these models often struggle with balancing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-07 Daisuke Murakami , Shinichiro Shirota , Seiji Kajita , Mami Kajita

In this paper, we introduce efficient ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods for Bayesian computations in the univariate stochastic volatility model. We compare the performance of our ensemble MCMC methods with an…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-10 Alexander Y. Shestopaloff , Radford M. Neal

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Chen Gong , David S. Stoffer

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide