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This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and…
Linear mixed effects models are highly flexible in handling a broad range of data types and are therefore widely used in applications. A key part in the analysis of data is model selection, which often aims to choose a parsimonious model…
In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…
Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized…
Comparisons are made for the amount of agreement of the composite likelihood information criteria and their full likelihood counterparts when making decisions among the fits of different models, and some properties of penalty term for…
A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…
We try to establish a unified information theoretic approach to learning and to explore some of its applications. First, we define {\em predictive information} as the mutual information between the past and the future of a time series,…
We address the brittleness of Bayesian experimental design under model misspecification by formulating the problem as a max--min game between the experimenter and an adversarial nature subject to information-theoretic constraints. We…
A maximum likelihood based model selection of discrete Bayesian networks is considered. The model selection is performed through scoring function $S$, which, for a given network $G$ and $n$-sample $D_n$, is defined to be the maximum…
The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…
The development of new methods and representations for temporal decision-making requires a principled basis for characterizing and measuring the flexibility of decision strategies in the face of uncertainty. Our goal in this paper is to…
In the mixture modeling frame, this paper presents the polynomial Gaussian cluster-weighted model (CWM). It extends the linear Gaussian CWM, for bivariate data, in a twofold way. Firstly, it allows for possible nonlinear dependencies in the…
Factorized information criterion (FIC) is a recently developed approximation technique for the marginal log-likelihood, which provides an automatic model selection framework for a few latent variable models (LVMs) with tractable inference…
We extend the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), an asymptotic approximation for the marginal likelihood, to Bayesian networks with hidden variables. This approximation can be used to select models given large samples of data. The…
Bayesian methods - either based on Bayes Factors or BIC - are now widely used for model selection. One property that might reasonably be demanded of any model selection method is that if a model ${M}_{1}$ is preferred to a model ${M}_{0}$,…
We revisit and generalize the concept of composite likelihood as a method to make a probabilistic inference by aggregation of multiple Bayesian agents, thereby defining a class of predictive models which we call composite Bayesian. This…
Flexible systems are linear systems of inclusions in which the elements of the coefficient matrix are external numbers in the sense of nonstandard analysis. External numbers represent real numbers with small, individual error terms. Using…
Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is…
For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…
Gibbs random fields play an important role in statistics. However they are complicated to work with due to an intractability of the likelihood function and there has been much work devoted to finding computational algorithms to allow…