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We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Ayman Boustati , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Theodoros Damoulas , Adam M. Johansen

We present a Dirichlet process mixture model over discrete incomplete rankings and study two Gibbs sampling inference techniques for estimating posterior clusterings. The first approach uses a slice sampling subcomponent for estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Marina Meila , Harr Chen

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in probability theory in general and in machine learning in particular. A Markov chain is devised so that its stationary distribution is some probability distribution of interest.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-02 Johan Jonasson

The FBMS R package facilitates Bayesian model selection and model averaging in complex regression settings by employing a variety of Monte Carlo model exploration methods. At its core, the package implements an efficient Mode Jumping Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Florian Frommlet , Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Aliaksandr Hubin

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-14 Boqian Zhang , Vinayak Rao

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-11-15 Jason Wyse , Nial Friel

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-23 Jamie Owen , Darren J. Wilkinson , Colin S. Gillespie

In this paper, we consider the task of clustering a set of individual time series while modeling each cluster, that is, model-based time series clustering. The task requires a parametric model with sufficient flexibility to describe the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Ryohei Umatani , Takashi Imai , Kaoru Kawamoto , Shutaro Kunimasa

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of densities restricted to linearly constrained domains is an important task arising in Bayesian treatment of inverse problems in the natural sciences. While efficient algorithms for uniform polytope…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are widely used but often encounter either slow convergence or biased sampling when applied to multimodal high dimensional distributions. In this paper, we present a general framework of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-09-12 Ricky Fok , Aijun An , Xiaogang Wang

Modeling of high-dimensional data is very important to categorize different classes. We develop a new mixture model called Multinomial cluster-weighted model (MCWM). We derive the identifiability of a general class of MCWM. We estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-25 Kehinde Olobatuyi , Oludare Ariyo

Normalized random measures (NRMs) provide a broad class of discrete random measures that are often used as priors for Bayesian nonparametric models. Dirichlet process is a well-known example of NRMs. Most of posterior inference methods for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-19 Juho Lee , Seungjin Choi

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are one of the most popular classes of algorithms for sampling from a target probability distribution. A rising trend in recent years consists in analyzing the convergence of MCMC algorithms using…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-30 Federica Milinanni

An irreversible Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with skew detailed balance conditions originally proposed by Turitsyn et al. is extended to general discrete systems on the basis of the Metropolis-Hastings scheme. To evaluate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-04-21 Yuji Sakai , Koji Hukushima

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-12 Yuansi Chen , Raaz Dwivedi , Martin J. Wainwright , Bin Yu

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan S. Willsky

We propose a new method for clustering multivariate time-series data based on Dynamic Linear Models. Whereas usual time-series clustering methods obtain static membership parameters, our proposal allows each time-series to dynamically…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-06 Victhor S. Sartório , Thaís C. O. Fonseca

A natural Bayesian approach for mixture models with an unknown number of components is to take the usual finite mixture model with Dirichlet weights, and put a prior on the number of components---that is, to use a mixture of finite mixtures…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-24 Jeffrey W. Miller , Matthew T. Harrison

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-18 Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness , Johan Dahlin
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