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Related papers: On moderate deviations in Poisson approximation

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The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yingying Yang , Niloufar Dousti Mousavi , Zhou Yu , Jie Yang

Using techniques from Poisson approximation, we prove explicit error bounds on the number of permutations that avoid any pattern. Most generally, we bound the total variation distance between the joint distribution of pattern occurrences…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Harry Crane , Stephen DeSalvo

Bounds of the accuracy of the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of independent random variables are improved under relaxed moment conditions, in particular, under the absence of moments of orders higher than the second.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-06 V. Yu. Korolev , A. V. Dorofeeva

We consider the approximation of a convolution of possibly different probability measures by (compound) Poisson distributions and also by related signed measures of higher order. We present new total variation bounds having a better…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-08 Bero Roos

In a Cox model, the partial likelihood, as the product of a series of conditional probabilities, is used to estimate the regression coefficients. In practice, those conditional probabilities are approximated by risk score ratios based on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-27 Youngjin Cho , Yili Hong , Pang Du

The paper is concerned with approximating the distribution of a sum W of n integer valued random variables Y_i, whose distributions depend on the state of an underlying Markov chain X. The approximation is in terms of a translated Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-06 A. D. Barbour , Torgny Lindvall

The paper is concerned with the equilibrium distributions of continuous-time density dependent Markov processes on the integers. These distributions are known typically to be approximately normal, and the approximation error, as measured in…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-06 Sanda N. Socoll , A. D. Barbour

Consider a population of individuals belonging to an infinity number of types, and assume that type proportions follow the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution. A sample of size n is selected from the population. The total number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Stefano Favaro , Shui Feng , Fuqing Gao

In the analysis of count data often the equidispersion assumption is not suitable, hence the Poisson regression model is inappropriate. As a generalization of the Poisson distribution, the COM-Poisson distribution can deal with under-,…

This paper deals with U-statistics of Poisson processes and multiple Wiener-It\^o integrals on the Poisson space. Via sharp bounds on the cumulants for both classes of random variables, moderate deviation principles, concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Matthias Schulte , Christoph Thaele

The statistics of the sum of random weights where the number of weights is Poisson distributed has important applications in nuclear physics, particle physics and astrophysics. Events are frequently weighted according to their acceptance or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-17 G. Bohm , G. Zech

We demonstrate that two approximations to the chi^2 statistic as popularly employed by observational astronomers for fitting Poisson-distributed data can give rise to intrinsically biased model parameter estimates, even in the high counts…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Philip J. Humphrey , Wenhao Liu , David A. Buote

The C statistics, also known as the Cash statistic, is often used in astronomy for the analysis of low-count Poisson data. One of the challenges of the C statistic is that its probability distribution, under the null hypothesis that the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2019-12-12 M. Bonamente

Using recent results on the occurrence times of a string of symbols in a stochastic process with mixing properties, we present a new method for the search of rare words in biological sequences generally modelled by a Markov chain. We obtain…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-16 Nicolas Vergne , Miguel Abadi

We overview results on the topic of Poisson approximation that are missed in existing surveys. The topic of Poisson approximation to the distribution of a sum of integer-valued random variables is presented as well. We do not restrict…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-12 S. Y. Novak

In the setting where we have $n$ independent observations of a random variable $X$, we derive explicit error bounds in total variation distance when approximating the number of observations equal to the maximum of the sample (in the case…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Fraser Daly

We present improved numerical approximations to the exact Poissonian confidence limits for small numbers n of observed events following the approach of Gehrels (1986). Analytic descriptions of all parameters used in the approximations are…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 Harald Ebeling

We provide a general result for bounding the difference between point probabilities of integer supported distributions and the translated Poisson distribution, a convenient alternative to the discretized normal. We illustrate our theorem in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-05 A. D. Barbour , Adrian Röllin , Nathan Ross

Inter-event times of various human behavior are apparently non-Poissonian and obey long-tailed distributions as opposed to exponential distributions, which correspond to Poisson processes. It has been suggested that human individuals may…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-02-27 Makoto Okada , Kenji Yamanishi , Naoki Masuda