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Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Model uncertainty quantification involves measuring and evaluating the uncertainty linked to a model's predictions, helping assess their reliability and confidence. Noise injection is a technique used to enhance the robustness of neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Xueqiong Yuan , Jipeng Li , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Scott Koermer , Natalie Klein

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Gianni Franchi , Olivier Laurent , Maxence Leguéry , Andrei Bursuc , Andrea Pilzer , Angela Yao

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Inputs to machine learning models can have associated noise or uncertainties, but they are often ignored and not modelled. It is unknown if Bayesian Neural Networks and their approximations are able to consider uncertainty in their inputs.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Marco Zullich

Quantifying the uncertainty in the output of a neural network is essential for deployment in scientific or engineering applications where decisions must be made under limited or noisy data. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Alex Alberts , Ilias Bilionis

We show that training a deep network using batch normalization is equivalent to approximate inference in Bayesian models. We further demonstrate that this finding allows us to make meaningful estimates of the model uncertainty using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-17 Mattias Teye , Hossein Azizpour , Kevin Smith

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Deep Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are a powerful tool, though computationally demanding, to perform parameter estimation while jointly estimating uncertainty around predictions. BNNs are typically implemented using arbitrary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-12 Daniele Silvestro , Tobias Andermann

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been…

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Manikanta Srikar Yellapragada , Chandra Prakash Konkimalla

Uncertainty quantification is an important task in machine learning - a task in which standardneural networks (NNs) have traditionally not excelled. This can be a limitation for safety-critical applications, where uncertainty-aware methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Felix Fiedler , Sergio Lucia

In chemistry, deep neural network models have been increasingly utilized in a variety of applications such as molecular property predictions, novel molecule designs, and planning chemical reactions. Despite the rapid increase in the use of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-05-17 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Yaniv Yacoby , Weiwei Pan , Finale Doshi-Velez