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Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Coralie Merle , Raphaël Leblois , François Rousset , Pierre Pudlo

We consider statistical learning problems, when the distribution $P'$ of the training observations $Z'_1,\; \ldots,\; Z'_n$ differs from the distribution $P$ involved in the risk one seeks to minimize (referred to as the test distribution)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-20 Robin Vogel , Mastane Achab , Stéphan Clémençon , Charles Tillier

Auto-regressive sequence generative models trained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation suffer the exposure bias problem in practical finite sample scenarios. The crux is that the number of training samples for Maximum Likelihood Estimation is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Yuxuan Song , Ning Miao , Hao Zhou , Lantao Yu , Mingxuan Wang , Lei Li

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Datasets with missing values are very common on industry applications, and they can have a negative impact on machine learning models. Recent studies introduced solutions to the problem of imputing missing values based on deep generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-28 Ramiro D. Camino , Christian A. Hammerschmidt , Radu State

We introduce and motivate generative modeling as a central task for machine learning and provide a critical view of the algorithms which have been proposed for solving this task. We overview how generative modeling can be defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Alex Lamb

Real-world datasets are often biased with respect to key demographic factors such as race and gender. Due to the latent nature of the underlying factors, detecting and mitigating bias is especially challenging for unsupervised machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Kristy Choi , Aditya Grover , Trisha Singh , Rui Shu , Stefano Ermon

Standard formulations of GANs, where a continuous function deforms a connected latent space, have been shown to be misspecified when fitting different classes of images. In particular, the generator will necessarily sample some low-quality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-20 Thibaut Issenhuth , Ugo Tanielian , David Picard , Jeremie Mary

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

In learning with noisy labels, the sample selection approach is very popular, which regards small-loss data as correctly labeled during training. However, losses are generated on-the-fly based on the model being trained with noisy labels,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-02 Xiaobo Xia , Tongliang Liu , Bo Han , Mingming Gong , Jun Yu , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama

Diffusion models have shown their effectiveness in generation tasks by well-approximating the underlying probability distribution. However, diffusion models are known to suffer from an amplified inherent bias from the training data in terms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Yujin Choi , Jinseong Park , Hoki Kim , Jaewook Lee , Saerom Park

Thanks to the tractability of their likelihood, several deep generative models show promise for seemingly straightforward but important applications like anomaly detection, uncertainty estimation, and active learning. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Charline Le Lan , Laurent Dinh

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Owen Thomas , Jukka Corander

Obtaining high certainty in predictive models is crucial for making informed and trustworthy decisions in many scientific and engineering domains. However, extensive experimentation required for model accuracy can be both costly and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Giorgio Morales , John Sheppard

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-12 Richard G. Everitt , Adam M. Johansen , Ellen Rowing , Melina Evdemon-Hogan

Implicit generative models have the capability to learn arbitrary complex data distributions. On the downside, training requires telling apart real data from artificially-generated ones using adversarial discriminators, leading to unstable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 José Manuel de Frutos , Pablo M. Olmos , Manuel A. Vázquez , Joaquín Míguez

In this paper, I proof that Importance Sampling estimates based on dependent sample sets are consistent under certain conditions. This can be used to reduce variance in Bayesian Models with factorizing likelihoods, using sample sets that…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-03 Ingmar Schuster

Unbiased assessment of the predictivity of models learnt by supervised machine-learning methods requires knowledge of the learned function over a reserved test set (not used by the learning algorithm). The quality of the assessment depends,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Elias Fekhari , Bertrand Iooss , Joseph Muré , Luc Pronzato , Maria-João Rendas

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Terrance D. Savitsky , Daniell Toth

Out-of-Distribution detection between dataset pairs has been extensively explored with generative models. We show that likelihood-based Out-of-Distribution detection can be extended to diffusion models by leveraging the fact that they, like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Joseph Goodier , Neill D. F. Campbell