Related papers: Local Exchangeability
We show that when the proportions of a countable set of species are organized as an exchangeable partition of the unit interval and we take a sample on it, then the Bayesian posterior entropy converges a.s. and in L^1 to the entropy of the…
We propose a novel family of test statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in a sequence of dependent, possibly multivariate, functional-valued observations. Our approach allows to test for a very general class of changepoints,…
There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…
In arXiv:0807.0677, K\"ostler and Speicher observed that de Finetti's theorem on exchangeable sequences has a free analogue if one replaces exchangeability by the stronger condition of invariance under quantum permutations. In this paper we…
The aim of this paper is to establish Hoeffding and Bernstein type concentration inequalities for weighted sums of exchangeable random variables. A special case is the i.i.d. setting, where random variables are sampled independently from…
Local volatility is an important quantity in option pricing, portfolio hedging, and risk management. It is not directly observable from the market; hence calibrations of local volatility models are necessary using observable market data.…
We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be…
A distributional symmetry is invariance of a distribution under a group of transformations. Exchangeability and stationarity are examples. We explain that a result of ergodic theory provides a law of large numbers: If the group satisfies…
In an entanglement swapping process two initially uncorrelated qubits become entangled, without any direct interaction. We present a model using local variables aiming at reproducing this remarkable process, under the realistic assumption…
Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…
De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…
We consider the task of modeling a dependent sequence of random partitions. It is well-known that a random measure in Bayesian nonparametrics induces a distribution over random partitions. The community has therefore assumed that the best…
In Bayesian multilevel models, the data are structured in interconnected groups, and their posteriors borrow information from one another due to prior dependence between latent parameters. However, little is known about the behaviour of the…
We propose a general new method, the conditional permutation test, for testing the conditional independence of variables $X$ and $Y$ given a potentially high-dimensional random vector $Z$ that may contain confounding factors. The proposed…
In this paper, a robust non-parametric measure of statistical dependence, or correlation, between two random variables is presented. The proposed coefficient is a permutation-like statistic that quantifies how much the observed sample S_n :…
We develop a weighted local likelihood estimate for the parameters that govern the local spatial dependency of a locally stationary random field. The advantage of this local likelihood estimate is that it smoothly downweights the influence…
Recent advances in Bayesian models for random partitions have led to the formulation and exploration of Exchangeable Sequences of Clusters (ESC) models. Under ESC models, it is the cluster sizes that are exchangeable, rather than the…
We apply the concept of distance covariance for testing independence of two long-range dependent time series. As test statistic we propose a linear combination of empirical distance cross-covariances. We derive the asymptotic distribution…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…