English
Related papers

Related papers: Quantification of Model Uncertainty on Path-Space …

200 papers

Deep learning-based object pose estimators are often unreliable and overconfident especially when the input image is outside the training domain, for instance, with sim2real transfer. Efficient and robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) in…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterise uncertainty in model inputs and how…

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Calibrating a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model against data leads to an improvement. Determining {\it a priori} if such an improvement generalizes to flows outside the calibration data is an outstanding challenge. This work…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-03-07 Xinyi Huang , Naman Jain , Mahdi Abkar , Robert Kunz , Xiang Yang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Mingda Li , Xinyu Li , Weinan Zhang , Longxuan Ma

Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Vardhan Dongre , Gurpreet Singh Hora

TodevelopanovelUncertaintyQuantification (UQ) framework to estimate the uncertainty of patient survival models in the absence of ground truth, we developed and evaluated our approach based on a dataset of 1383 patients treated with…

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-03-31 Pascal Pernot

Deep learning models for semantic segmentation are prone to poor performance in real-world applications due to the highly challenging nature of the task. Model uncertainty quantification (UQ) is one way to address this issue of lack of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a crucial but challenging task in many high-dimensional regression or learning problems to increase the confidence of a given predictor. We develop a new data-driven approach for UQ in regression that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Frederik Hoppe , Claudio Mayrink Verdun , Hannah Laus , Felix Krahmer , Holger Rauhut

The advent of fabrication techniques like additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other micro-structural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an…

Applied Physics · Physics 2018-02-06 F. Rizzi , R. E. Jones , J. A. Templeton , J. T. Ostien , B. L. Boyce

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Nils Grünefeld , Jes Frellsen , Christian Hardmeier

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle has recently led to general measurement uncertainty relations for quantum systems: incompatible observables can be measured jointly or in sequence only with some unavoidable approximation, which can be…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-06-27 Alberto Barchielli , Matteo Gregoratti , Alessandro Toigo

Uncertainty quantification is a key aspect in many tasks such as model selection/regularization, or quantifying prediction uncertainties to perform active learning or OOD detection. Within credal approaches that consider modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Tuan-Anh Vu , Sébastien Destercke , Frédéric Pichon

An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets.…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-05-02 Daniel Schwalbe-Koda , Sebastien Hamel , Babak Sadigh , Fei Zhou , Vincenzo Lordi

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Henry Lam , Enlu Zhou