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Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-30 Y. Pokern , A. M. Stuart , P. Wiberg

Discrete mixture models are one of the most successful approaches for density estimation. Under a Bayesian nonparametric framework, Dirichlet process location-scale mixture of Gaussian kernels is the golden standard, both having nice…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-02 Antonio Canale , Bruno Scarpa

We propose a deep generative approach to sampling from a conditional distribution based on a unified formulation of conditional distribution and generalized nonparametric regression function using the noise-outsourcing lemma. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Xingyu Zhou , Yuling Jiao , Jin Liu , Jian Huang

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 M. E. J. Newman

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Oleksandr Shchur , Marin Biloš , Stephan Günnemann

In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-17 Sotirios P. Chatzis , Dimitrios Korkinof , Yiannis Demiris

We propose closed-form conditional diffusion models for data assimilation. Diffusion models use data to learn the score function (defined as the gradient of the log-probability density of a data distribution), allowing them to generate new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Brianna Binder , Agnimitra Dasgupta , Assad Oberai

We propose a novel and computationally efficient approach for nonparametric conditional density estimation in high-dimensional settings that achieves dimension reduction without imposing restrictive distributional or functional form…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-14 Jianhua Mei , Fu Ouyang , Thomas T. Yang

Nonignorable missing outcomes are common in real world datasets and often require strong parametric assumptions to achieve identification. These assumptions can be implausible or untestable, and so we may forgo them in favour of partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-19 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Paul Dupuis , Ali Devin Sezer , Hui Wang

Gibbs partition models are the largest class of infinite exchangeable partitions of the positive integers generalizing the product form of the probability function of the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet family. Recently those models have…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-23 Annalisa Cerquetti

The compound Poisson process and the Dirichlet process are the pillar structures of Renewal theory and Bayesian nonparametric theory, respectively. Both processes have many useful extensions to fulfill the practitioners needs to model the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-17 Arrigo Coen , Beatriz Godínez-Chaparro

We investigate nonlinear state-space models without a closed-form transition density, and propose reformulating such models over their latent noise variables rather than their latent state variables. In doing so the tractable noise density…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-11 Lawrence M. Murray , Emlyn M. Jones , John Parslow

Importance sampling (IS) is a variance reduction method for simulating rare events. A recent paper by Dupuis, Wang and Sezer (Ann. App. Probab. 17(4):1306- 1346, 2007) exploits connections between IS and stochastic games and optimal control…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-24 Ali Devin Sezer

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods provide a useful alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for performing inference of intractable distributions. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithms constitute a family of AIS…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-13 Soumyasundar Pal , Antonios Valkanas , Mark Coates

Sampling from unnormalized multimodal distributions with limited density evaluations remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning and natural sciences. Successful approaches construct a bridge between a tractable reference and the…

We propose bandit importance sampling (BIS), a powerful importance sampling framework tailored for settings in which evaluating the target density is computationally expensive. BIS facilitates accurate sampling while minimizing the required…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Takuo Matsubara , Andrew Duncan , Simon Cotter , Konstantinos Zygalakis

In this paper, we propose an adaptive algorithm that iteratively updates both the weights and component parameters of a mixture importance sampling density so as to optimise the importance sampling performances, as measured by an entropy…

Computation · Statistics 2009-08-18 Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Arnaud Guillin , Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-12 Matthias C. M. Troffaes

We propose and develop a novel and effective perfect sampling methodology for simulating from posteriors corresponding to mixtures with either known (fixed) or unknown number of components. For the latter we consider the Dirichlet…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-14 Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay , Sourabh Bhattacharya