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In this paper we develop a continuous-time sequential importance sampling (CIS) algorithm which eliminates time-discretisation errors and provides online unbiased estimation for continuous time Markov processes, in particular for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-19 Paul Fearnhead , Krzystof Latuszynski , Gareth O. Roberts , Giorgos Sermaidis

Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Liviu Aolaritei , Bart P. G. Van Parys , Henry Lam , Michael I. Jordan

We consider the problem of estimating Shannon's entropy $H$ from discrete data, in cases where the number of possible symbols is unknown or even countably infinite. The Pitman-Yor process, a generalization of Dirichlet process, provides a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-11 Evan Archer , Il Memming Park , Jonathan Pillow

Importance sampling approximates expectations with respect to a target measure by using samples from a proposal measure. The performance of the method over large classes of test functions depends heavily on the closeness between both…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-01 Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , G. Camps-Valls

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We propose a parsimonious extension of the classical latent class model to cluster categorical data by relaxing the class conditional independence assumption. Under this new mixture model, named Conditional Modes Model, variables are…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-21 Matthieu Marbac , Christophe Biernacki , Vincent Vandewalle

We introduce a new class of nonparametric prior distributions on the space of continuously varying densities, induced by Dirichlet process mixtures which diffuse in time. These select time-indexed random functions without jumps, whose…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-10 Ramsés H. Mena , Matteo Ruggiero

We present a nonparametric Bayesian joint model for multivariate continuous and categorical variables, with the intention of developing a flexible engine for multiple imputation of missing values. The model fuses Dirichlet process mixtures…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-14 Jared S. Murray , Jerome P. Reiter

Models with unnormalized probability density functions are ubiquitous in statistics, artificial intelligence and many other fields. However, they face significant challenges in model selection if the normalizing constants are intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Rong Bian , Kung-Sik Chan , Bing Cheng , Howell Tong

This paper investigates adaptive importance sampling algorithms for which the policy, the sequence of distributions used to generate the particles, is a mixture distribution between a flexible kernel density estimate (based on the previous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Bernard Delyon , François Portier

Prior distributions play a crucial role in Bayesian approaches to clustering. Two commonly-used prior distributions are the Dirichlet and Pitman-Yor processes. In this paper, we investigate the predictive probabilities that underlie these…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-10-18 Hanna M. Wallach , Shane T. Jensen , Lee Dicker , Katherine A. Heller

Copula-based dependence modeling often relies on parametric formulations. This is mathematically convenient, but can be statistically inefficient when the parametric families are not suitable for the data and model in focus. A Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Ruyi Pan , Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Radu V. Craiu

We are concerned in clustering continuous data sets subject to non-ignorable missingness. We perform clustering with a specific semi-parametric mixture, under the assumption of conditional independence given the component. The mixture model…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-20 Marie Du Roy de Chaumaray , Matthieu Marbac

An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

We introduce a new mean-field ODE and corresponding interacting particle systems (IPS) for sampling from an unnormalized target density. The IPS are gradient-free, available in closed form, and only require the ability to sample from a…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-06 Aimee Maurais , Youssef Marzouk

We consider the problem of estimating the partition function of the ferromagnetic Ising model in a consistent external magnetic field. The estimation is done via importance sampling in the dual of the Forney factor graph representing the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-27 Mehdi Molkaraie

We propose a new estimation procedure of the conditional density for independent and identically distributed data. Our procedure aims at using the data to select a function among arbitrary (at most countable) collections of candidates. By…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Mathieu Sart

We introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler called the Markov Interacting Importance Sampler (MIIS). The MIIS sampler uses conditional importance sampling (IS) approximations to jointly sample the current state of the Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-26 Eduardo F. Mendes , Marcel Scharth , Robert Kohn

In longitudinal studies, it is not uncommon to make multiple attempts to collect a measurement after baseline. Recording whether these attempts are successful provides useful information for the purposes of assessing missing data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-10 Michael J. Daniels , Minji Lee , Wei Feng