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We study optimal conformity measures for various criteria of efficiency of classification in an idealised setting. This leads to an important class of criteria of efficiency that we call probabilistic; it turns out that the most standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-15 Vladimir Vovk , Ilia Nouretdinov , Valentina Fedorova , Ivan Petej , Alex Gammerman

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Jamelle Watson-Daniels , David C. Parkes , Berk Ustun

Understanding how different classes are distributed in an unlabeled data set is an important challenge for the calibration of probabilistic classifiers and uncertainty quantification. Approaches like adjusted classify and count, black-box…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-19 Albert Ziegler , Paweł Czyż

In the face of uncertainty, the need for probabilistic assessments has long been recognized in the literature on forecasting. In classification, however, comparative evaluation of classifiers often focuses on predictions specifying a single…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-31 Johannes Resin

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Siddartha Devic , David Kempe , Vatsal Sharan , Aleksandra Korolova

Data-efficient learning algorithms are essential in many practical applications for which data collection is expensive, e.g., for the optimal deployment of wireless systems in unknown propagation scenarios. Meta-learning can address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Ivana Nikoloska , Osvaldo Simeone

Technological and computational advances continuously drive forward the broad field of deep learning. In recent years, the derivation of quantities describing theuncertainty in the prediction - which naturally accompanies the modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Christoph Koller , Göran Kauermann , Xiao Xiang Zhu

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Shengjia Zhao , Michael P. Kim , Roshni Sahoo , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Lidan Wang , Franck Dernoncourt , Trung Bui

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Dimitris Bertsimas , Benjamin Boucher

Classification of high dimensional data finds wide-ranging applications. In many of these applications equipping the resulting classification with a measure of uncertainty may be as important as the classification itself. In this paper we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-12 Andrea L. Bertozzi , Xiyang Luo , Andrew M. Stuart , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

Deep Learning sets the state-of-the-art in many challenging tasks showing outstanding performance in a broad range of applications. Despite its success, it still lacks robustness hindering its adoption in medical applications. Modeling…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Agnieszka Tomczack , Nassir Navab , Shadi Albarqouni

We study fair allocation of constrained resources, where a market designer optimizes overall welfare while maintaining group fairness. In many large-scale settings, utilities are not known in advance, but are instead observed after…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Elita Lobo , Justin Payan , Cyrus Cousins , Yair Zick

Given a (machine learning) classifier and a collection of unlabeled data, how can we efficiently identify misclassification patterns presented in this dataset? To address this problem, we propose a human-machine collaborative framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Bao Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

Classification is an important task in many fields including biomedical research and machine learning. Traditionally, a classification rule is constructed based a bunch of labeled data. Recently, due to technological innovation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-19 Jing Wang , Eunsik Park , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

Although a great methodological effort has been invested in proposing competitive solutions to the class-imbalance problem, little effort has been made in pursuing a theoretical understanding of this matter. In order to shed some light on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-04 Jonathan Ortigosa-Hernández , Iñaki Inza , Jose A. Lozano

Uncertainty quantification is one of the most crucial tasks to obtain trustworthy and reliable machine learning models for decision making. However, most research in this domain has only focused on problems with small label spaces and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Jyun-Yu Jiang , Wei-Cheng Chang , Jiong Zhong , Cho-Jui Hsieh , Hsiang-Fu Yu

Classification is a fundamental task in machine learning. While conventional methods-such as binary, multiclass, and multi-label classification-are effective for simpler problems, they may not adequately address the complexities of some…

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