Related papers: Estimation of Markovian-regime-switching models wi…
In this work, a versatile mathematical framework for multi-state probabilistic modeling of Resistive Switching (RS) devices is proposed for the first time. The mathematical formulation of memristor and Markov jump processes are combined…
Data centers are becoming a major consumer of electricity on the grid, with cooling accounting for about 40\% of that energy. As electricity prices vary throughout the day and year, there is a need for cooling strategies that adapt to these…
In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…
State-space models (SSM) with Markov switching offer a powerful framework for detecting multiple regimes in time series, analyzing mutual dependence and dynamics within regimes, and asserting transitions between regimes. These models…
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…
Motivated by wide-ranging applications such as video delivery over networks using Multiple Description Codes, congestion control, and inventory management, we study the state-tracking of a Markovian random process with a known transition…
In the literature of Round-Robin scheduling scheme, each job is processed, one after the another after giving a fix quantum. In case of First-come first-served, each process is executed, if the previously arrived processed is completed.…
We consider nonparametric estimation for functional autoregressive processes with Markov switching. First, we study the case where complete data is available; i.e. when we observe the Markov switching regime. Then we estimate the regression…
In this paper we derive the consistency of the penalized likelihood method for the number state of the hidden Markov chain in autoregressive models with Markov regimen. Using a SAEM type algorithm to estimate the models parameters. We test…
For the challenging task of modeling multivariate time series, we propose a new class of models that use dependent Mat\'ern processes to capture the underlying structure of data, explain their interdependencies, and predict their unknown…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
We introduce a new and highly tractable structural model for spot and derivative prices in electricity markets. Using a stochastic model of the bid stack, we translate the demand for power and the prices of generating fuels into electricity…
In this paper, we introduce a suite of models for price-aware automated market making platforms willing to optimize their quotes. These models incorporate advanced price dynamics, including stochastic volatility, jumps, and microstructural…
In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…
Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…
Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…
Markov state models (MSMs) have been demonstrated to be a powerful method for computationally studying intramolecular processes such as protein folding and macromolecular conformational changes. In this article, we present a new approach to…
In this paper we develop a novel hidden Markov graphical model to investigate time-varying interconnectedness between different financial markets. To identify conditional correlation structures under varying market conditions and…
This paper describes a model for generating time series which exhibit the statistical phenomenon known as long-range dependence (LRD). A Markov Modulated Process based upon an infinite Markov chain is described. The work described is…
This paper describes a step-by-step procedure that converts a physical model of a building into a Markov Process that characterizes energy consumption of this and other similar buildings. Relative to existing thermo-physics-based building…