Related papers: Replacing the do-calculus with Bayes rule
The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…
We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…
Inferring the potential consequences of an unobserved event is a fundamental scientific question. To this end, Pearl's celebrated do-calculus provides a set of inference rules to derive an interventional probability from an observational…
Estimation of causal effects involves crucial assumptions about the data-generating process, such as directionality of effect, presence of instrumental variables or mediators, and whether all relevant confounders are observed. Violation of…
We give a category-theoretic treatment of causal models that formalizes the syntax for causal reasoning over a directed acyclic graph (DAG) by associating a free Markov category with the DAG in a canonical way. This framework enables us to…
This paper is concerned with graphical criteria that can be used to solve the problem of identifying casual effects from nonexperimental data in a causal Bayesian network structure, i.e., a directed acyclic graph that represents causal…
We define a Causal Decision Problem as a Decision Problem where the available actions, the family of uncertain events and the set of outcomes are related through the variables of a Causal Graphical Model $\mathcal{G}$. A solution criteria…
It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous…
Statistical science (as opposed to mathematical statistics) involves far more than probability theory, for it requires realistic causal models of data generators - even for purely descriptive goals. Statistical decision theory requires more…
We prove the main rules of causal calculus (also called do-calculus) for i/o structural causal models (ioSCMs), a generalization of a recently proposed general class of non-/linear structural causal models that allow for cycles, latent…
Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…
Do-calculus is concerned with estimating the interventional distribution of an action from the observed joint probability distribution of the variables in a given causal structure. All identifiable causal effects can be derived using the…
In this paper, the relationship between probabilistic graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, and causal diagrams, also called structural causal models, is studied. Structural causal models are deterministic models, based on…
It has been stated that the notion of cause and effect is one object of study that sciences and engineering revolve around. Lately, in software engineering, diagrammatic causal inference methods (e.g., Pearl s model) have gained popularity…
The do-calculus was developed in 1995 to facilitate the identification of causal effects in non-parametric models. The completeness proofs of [Huang and Valtorta, 2006] and [Shpitser and Pearl, 2006] and the graphical criteria of [Tian and…
Our evolution as a species made a huge step forward when we understood the relationships between causes and effects. These associations may be trivial for some events, but they are not in complex scenarios. To rigorously prove that some…
Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…
Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…
Although propensity scores have been central to the estimation of causal effects for over 30 years, only recently has the statistical literature begun to consider in detail methods for Bayesian estimation of propensity scores and causal…
In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective…