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The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is arguably the most efficient sampling method for general probability distributions of continuous variables. Together with exact Fourier acceleration (EFA) the HMC becomes equivalent to direct…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2025-07-23 Johann Ostmeyer

Cellular Automata are discrete-time dynamical systems on a spatially extended discrete space which provide paradigmatic examples of nonlinear phenomena. Their stochastic generalizations, i.e., Probabilistic Cellular Automata (PCA), are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-16 Emilio N. M. Cirillo , P. -Y. Louis , W. M. Ruszel , C. Spitoni

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for performing approximate inference in complex probabilistic models of continuous variables. In common with many MCMC methods, however, the standard HMC…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-12 Matthew M. Graham , Amos J. Storkey

We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 Guneykan Ozgul , Xiantao Li , Mehrdad Mahdavi , Chunhao Wang

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) has been increasingly popular in Bayesian learning due to its ability to deal with large data. A standard SG-MCMC algorithm simulates samples from a discretized-time Markov chain to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-30 Changyou Chen , Ruiyi Zhang

Sampling occupies an important position in theories of various scientific fields, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides the most common technique of sampling. In the progress of MCMC, a huge number of studies have aimed the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-20 Akihisa Ichiki , Masayuki Ohzeki

\emph{Sampling} constitutes an important tool in a variety of areas: from machine learning and combinatorial optimization to computational physics and biology. A central class of sampling algorithms is the \emph{Markov Chain Monte Carlo}…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-05-16 Manuela Fischer , Mohsen Ghaffari

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-11 Hamed Nikbakht , Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Chen Gong , David S. Stoffer

In this work, we introduce a simple modification of the Monte Carlo algorithm, which we call step Monte Carlo (sMC). The sMC approach allows to simulate processes far from equilibrium and obtain information about the dynamic properties of…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-12-15 Dariusz Sztenkiel

State-space models (SSMs) are commonly used to model time series data where the observations depend on an unobserved latent process. However, inference on the model parameters of an SSM can be challenging, especially when the likelihood of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-08 Mary Llewellyn , Ruth King , Víctor Elvira , Gordon Ross

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have existed for a long time and the field is well-explored. The purpose of MCMC methods is to approximate a distribution through repeated sampling; most MCMC algorithms exhibit asymptotically optimal…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-13 Fareed Sheriff

It is common practice in Markov chain Monte Carlo to update the simulation one variable (or sub-block of variables) at a time, rather than conduct a single full-dimensional update. When it is possible to draw from each full-conditional…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-03 Alicia A. Johnson , Galin L. Jones , Ronald C. Neath

The particle Gibbs (PG) sampler is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which uses an interacting particle system to perform the Gibbs steps. Each Gibbs step consists of simulating a particle system conditioned on one particle path.…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-19 Bernd Kuhlenschmidt , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Bayesian inference of Gibbs random fields (GRFs) is often referred to as a doubly intractable problem, since the likelihood function is intractable. The exploration of the posterior distribution of such models is typically carried out with…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-16 Aidan Boland , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-21 Benjamin Wee

We present a method for fast optimal estimation of the temperature angular power spectrum from observations of the cosmic microwave background. We employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to obtain samples from the posterior…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 J. F. Taylor , M. A. J. Ashdown , M. P. Hobson

Many recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers leverage continuous dynamics to define a transition kernel that efficiently explores a target distribution. In tandem, a focus has been on devising scalable variants that subsample the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-03 Yi-An Ma , Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox

The spatial structure, fluctuations as well as all state probabilities of self-organized (steady) states of cellular automata can be found (almost) exactly and {\em explicitly} from their Markovian dynamics. The method is shown on an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 M. V. Medvedev , P. H. Diamond

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient method of simulating smooth distributions and has motivated the widely used No-U-turn Sampler (NUTS) and software Stan. We build on NUTS and the technique of "unbiased sampling" to design HMC…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-26 George M. Leigh , Amanda R. Northrop