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Related papers: Machine Learning on EPEX Order Books: Insights and…

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This paper proposes a forecast-centric adaptive learning model that engages with the past studies on the order book and high-frequency data, with applications to hypothesis testing. In line with the past literature, we produce brackets of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Parley Ruogu Yang

Energy forecasting has attracted enormous attention over the last few decades, with novel proposals related to the use of heterogeneous data sources, probabilistic forecasting, online learn-ing, etc. A key aspect that emerged is that…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-05 Pierre Pinson , Liyang Han , Jalal Kazempour

The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new…

Applications · Statistics 2016-06-28 Weisi Deng , Yuting Ji , Lang Tong

We present two machine learning frameworks for forecasting aggregated curves and optimizing storage in the EPEX SPOT day-ahead market. First, a fast parametric model forecasts hourly demand and supply curves in a low-dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Julian Gutierrez , Redouane Silvente

We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture specifically designed for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-29 Souhir Ben Amor , Florian Ziel

The recent abundance of data on electricity consumption at different scales opens new challenges and highlights the need for new techniques to leverage information present at finer scales in order to improve forecasts at wider scales. In…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-23 Anestis Antoniadis , Solenne Gaucher , Yannig Goude

Continuous intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in short-term trading and balancing, yet decision-making under rapidly evolving price dynamics remains challenging. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-14 Andrzej Puć , Joanna Janczura

Recently there has been significant research on power generation, distribution and transmission efficiency especially in the case of renewable resources. The main objective is reduction of energy losses and this requires improvements on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-17 Stefan Hosein , Patrick Hosein

Accurate electrical consumption forecasting is crucial for efficient energy management and resource allocation. While traditional time series forecasting relies on historical patterns and temporal dependencies, incorporating external…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Fabien Bernier , Maxime Cordy , Yves Le Traon

Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. However, the majority of models developed in both academic and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-08 Arkadiusz Lipiecki , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

This research provides an in-depth evaluation of various machine learning models for energy forecasting, focusing on the unique challenges of seasonal variations in student residential settings. The study assesses the performance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Muhammad Umair Danish , Mathumitha Sureshkumar , Tehara Fonseka , Umeshika Uthayakumar , Vinura Galwaduge

Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common…

Intra-day price spreads are of interest to electricity traders, storage and electric vehicle operators. This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast the German…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ekaterina Abramova , Derek Bunn

In this paper, we design an analytically and experimentally better online energy and job scheduling algorithm with the objective of maximizing net profit for a service provider in green data centers. We first study the previously known…

Performance · Computer Science 2014-04-22 Huangxin Wang , Jean X. Zhang , Fei Li

The success of machine learning models in the financial domain is highly reliant on the quality of the data representation. In this paper, we focus on the representation of limit order book data and discuss the opportunities and challenges…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-12 Yufei Wu , Mahmoud Mahfouz , Daniele Magazzeni , Manuela Veloso

Accurate electrical load forecasting is crucial for optimizing power system operations, planning, and management. As power systems become increasingly complex, traditional forecasting methods may fail to capture the intricate patterns and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-26 Elias Raffoul , Mingjian Tuo , Cunzhi Zhao , Tianxia Zhao , Meng Ling , Xingpeng Li

This paper proposes a novel energy storage price arbitrage algorithm combining supervised learning with dynamic programming. The proposed approach uses a neural network to directly predicts the opportunity cost at different energy storage…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-22 Ningkun Zheng , Xiaoxiang Liu , Bolun Xu , Yuanyuan Shi

This paper considers an aggregator of Electric Vehicles (EVs) who aims to learn the aggregate power of his/her fleet while also participating in the electricity market. The proposed approach is based on a data-driven inverse optimization…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-08 Ricardo Fernández-Blanco , Juan Miguel Morales , Salvador Pineda , Álvaro Porras

This paper develops a machine learning-driven portfolio optimization framework for virtual bidding in electricity markets considering both risk constraint and price sensitivity. The algorithmic trading strategy is developed from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Yinglun Li , Nanpeng Yu , Wei Wang

We are interested in the online prediction of the electricity load, within the Bayesian framework of dynamic models. We offer a review of sequential Monte Carlo methods, and provide the calculations needed for the derivation of so-called…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-16 Tristan Launay , Anne Philippe , Sophie Lamarche