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The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

Policy evaluation in empirical microeconomics has been focusing on estimating the average treatment effect and more recently the heterogeneous treatment effects, often relying on the unconfoundedness assumption. We propose a method based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-06 Wei Tian

Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-16 Thai Pham

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is crucial for reliable decision-making in treatment evaluation and selection. The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used to capture treatment effect heterogeneity induced by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Peng Wu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng , Yue Liu

Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Mingzhang Yin , Claudia Shi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Evaluating the treatment effects has become an important topic for many applications. However, most existing literature focuses mainly on the average treatment effects. When the individual effects are heavy-tailed or have outlier values,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Yongchang Su , Xinran Li

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Uri Shalit , Fredrik D. Johansson , David Sontag

Causal Inference has wide applications in various areas such as E-commerce and precision medicine, and its performance heavily relies on the accurate estimation of the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). Conventionally, ITE is predicted by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Kailiang Zhong , Fengtong Xiao , Yan Ren , Yaorong Liang , Wenqing Yao , Xiaofeng Yang , Ling Cen

Recent work has made important contributions in the development of causally-interpretable meta-analysis. These methods transport treatment effects estimated in a collection of randomized trials to a target population of interest. Ideally,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

Estimation of individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational studies is a fundamental problem in causal inference and holds significant importance across domains, including healthcare. However, limited observational datasets pose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Jiandong Zhou , Ghadeer Ghosheh , Soheila Molaei , David A. Clifton

Given two possible treatments, there may exist subgroups who benefit greater from one treatment than the other. This problem is relevant to the field of marketing, where treatments may correspond to different ways of selling a product. It…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Derek Feng , Xiaofei Wang

Analysis of effect heterogeneity at the group level is standard practice in empirical treatment evaluation. However, treatments analyzed are often aggregates of multiple underlying treatments which are themselves heterogeneous, e.g.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-27 Phillip Heiler , Michael C. Knaus

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

Exploration of treatment effect heterogeneity (TEH) is an increasingly important aspect of modern statistical analysis for stratified medicine in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) as we start to gather more information on trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-14 Chieh-Hsi Wu , Chris C. Holmes

Precision medicine seeks to match patients with treatments that produce the greatest benefit. The Predicted Individual Treatment Effect (PITE)-the difference between predicted outcomes under treatment and control-quantifies this benefit but…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-09 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , M Lee Van Horn , Thomas Jaki

Recent years have seen a swell in methods that focus on estimating "individual treatment effects". These methods are often focused on the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under ignorability assumptions. This paper hopes to draw…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-12 Brian G. Vegetabile

We propose a matching method that recovers direct treatment effects from randomized experiments where units are connected in an observed network, and units that share edges can potentially influence each others' outcomes. Traditional…