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Related papers: Non-Parametric Calibration for Classification

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Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Shachi Deshpande

A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-17 Ádám Jung , Domokos M. Kelen , András A. Benczúr

Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Reliable spatial uncertainty evaluation of object detection models is of special interest and has been subject of recent work. In this work, we review the existing definitions for uncertainty calibration of probabilistic regression tasks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Fabian Küppers , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

Calibration is a pivotal aspect in predictive modeling, as it ensures that the predictions closely correspond with what we observe empirically. The contemporary calibration framework, however, is predominantly focused on prediction models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Bavo De Cock Campo

The wide adoption of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in applications where decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental, has brought a great deal of attention to the ability of these models to accurately quantify the uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-29 Gia-Lac Tran , Edwin V. Bonilla , John P. Cunningham , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

For personalized ranking models, the well-calibrated probability of an item being preferred by a user has great practical value. While existing work shows promising results in image classification, probability calibration has not been much…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-04-27 Wonbin Kweon , SeongKu Kang , Hwanjo Yu

Deep metric learning has gained promising improvement in recent years following the success of deep learning. It has been successfully applied to problems in few-shot learning, image retrieval, and open-set classifications. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Maryna Karpusha , Sunghee Yun , Istvan Fehervari

Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Haiyi Shi , Lei Yang , Jiarui Chi , Troy Butler , Haonan Wang , Derek Bingham , Don Estep

Generating confidence calibrated outputs is of utmost importance for the applications of deep neural networks in safety-critical decision-making systems. The output of a neural network is a probability distribution where the scores are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Chihuang Liu , Joseph JaJa

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Mariella Dreissig , Florian Piewak , Joschka Boedecker

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are often overconfident, producing miscalibrated class probabilities. In high-risk applications like healthcare, practitioners require $\textit{fully calibrated}$ probability predictions for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Pei-Shien Wu , Ryan Martin

Although deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in audio classification tasks, their uncertainty calibration are still under-explored. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Tong Ye , Shijing Si , Jianzong Wang , Ning Cheng , Jing Xiao

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

We make two contributions to the problem of estimating the $L_1$ calibration error of a binary classifier from a finite dataset. First, we provide an upper bound for any classifier where the calibration function has bounded variation.…

Recent studies have revealed that, beyond conventional accuracy, calibration should also be considered for training modern deep neural networks. To address miscalibration during learning, some methods have explored different penalty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Bingyuan Liu , Jérôme Rony , Adrian Galdran , Jose Dolz , Ismail Ben Ayed