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We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal modeling provides us with powerful counterfactual reasoning and interventional mechanism to generate predictions and reason under various what-if scenarios. However, causal discovery using observation data remains a nontrivial task…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-06 Jawad Chowdhury , Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

A standard assumption for causal inference from observational data is that one has measured a sufficiently rich set of covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values. Skepticism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-24 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

Over the last decades, many prognostic models based on artificial intelligence techniques have been used to provide detailed predictions in healthcare. Unfortunately, the real-world observational data used to train and validate these models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Alice Bernasconi , Alessio Zanga , Peter J. F. Lucas , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella

The study of causality or causal inference - how much a given treatment causally affects a given outcome in a population - goes way beyond correlation or association analysis of variables, and is critical in making sound data driven…

Databases · Computer Science 2017-08-09 Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

Thanks to technological advances leading to near-continuous time observations, emerging multivariate point process data offer new opportunities for causal discovery. However, a key obstacle in achieving this goal is that many relevant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-15 Xu Wang , Ali Shojaie

This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-19 Judith J. Lok

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Zhixuan Chu , Ruopeng Li , Stephen Rathbun , Sheng Li

The principal stratification has become a popular tool to address a broad class of causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with non-compliance and truncation-by-death problems. The causal effects within principal strata which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Yangbo He

We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

Causal inference is difficult in the presence of unobserved confounders. We introduce the instrumented common confounding (ICC) approach to (nonparametrically) identify causal effects with instruments, which are exogenous only conditional…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-20 Christian Tien

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-01 Roy S. Zawadzki , Joshua D. Grill , Daniel L. Gillen

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-31 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Nikolaos Nikolaou , Konstantinos Sechidis

Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Neha Prasad , Caroline Uhler

We develop a method to decompose causal effects on a social network into an indirect effect mediated by the network, and a direct effect independent of the social network. To handle the complexity of network structures, we assume that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Alex Hayes , Mark M. Fredrickson , Keith Levin

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is challenging. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Yue Zhang , Feng Xie , Yangbo He

Over the past two decades, considerable strides have been made in advancing neuroscientific techniques, yet challenges remain in attributing causality to observed associations. This review addresses a fundamental issue in observational…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-04 Eric W. Bridgeford , Brian S. Caffo , Maya B. Mathur , Russell A. Poldrack