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We consider the quickest change detection problem where both the parameters of pre- and post- change distributions are unknown, which prevents the use of classical simple hypothesis testing. Without additional assumptions, optimal solutions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Firas Jarboui , Viannet Perchet

For the problem of sequential detection of changes, we adopt the probability maximizing approach in place of the classical minimization of the average detection delay, and propose modified versions of the Shiryaev, Lorden and Pollak…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-16 George V. Moustakides

In this paper the problem of retrospective change-point detection and estimation in multivariate linear models is considered. The lower bounds for the error of change-point estimation are proved in different cases (one change-point:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-10-27 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

Change point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt property changes in time series data. Recent CPD methods demonstrated the potential of using deep learning techniques, but often lack the ability to identify more subtle changes in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Tim De Ryck , Maarten De Vos , Alexander Bertrand

In this paper, we use and further develop upon a recently proposed multivariate, distribution-free Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) test based on the theory of Optimal Transport (OT) called the Rank Energy (RE) [1], for non-parametric and unsupervised…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-02 Shoaib Bin Masud , Shuchin Aeron

State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Bickel , Yaacov Ritov , Tobias Rydén

The problem of quickest growing dynamic anomaly detection in sensor networks is studied. Initially, the observations at the sensors, which are sampled sequentially by the decision maker, are generated according to a pre-change distribution.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Georgios Rovatsos , Venugopal V. Veeravalli , Don Towsley , Ananthram Swami

In this paper we present novel methodology for automatic anomaly and switch event filtering to improve load estimation in power grid systems. By leveraging unsupervised methods with supervised optimization, our approach prioritizes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Roel Bouman , Linda Schmeitz , Luco Buise , Jacco Heres , Yuliya Shapovalova , Tom Heskes

Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-01 Grigory Alexandrovich , Hajo Holzmann , Anna Leister

Offline change point detection retrospectively locates change points in a time series. Many nonparametric methods that target i.i.d. mean and variance changes fail in the presence of nonlinear temporal dependence, and model based methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-19 Noah D. Gade , Jordan Rodu

In this paper, I propose a general procedure for multivariate distribution-free nonparametric testing derived from the concept of ranks that are based upon measure transportation in the context of multiple change point analysis. I will use…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2021-08-30 Amanda Ng

Optimal control in non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDP) is a challenging problem. The aim in such a control problem is to maximize the long-term discounted reward when the transition dynamics or the reward function can change over…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-03 Taposh Banerjee , Miao Liu , Jonathan P. How

We consider chemical reaction networks modeled by a discrete state and continuous in time Markov process for the vector copy number of the species and provide a novel particle filter method for state and parameter estimation based on exact…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-24 Muruhan Rathinam , Mingkai Yu

We study the quickest detection problem of a sudden change in the arrival rate of a Poisson process from a known value to an unknown and unobservable value at an unknown and unobservable disorder time. Our objective is to design an alarm…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-03 Erhan Bayraktar , Savas Dayanik , Ioannis Karatzas

This work investigates the almost sure stabilization of a class of regime-switching systems based on discrete-time observations of both continuous and discrete components. It develops Shao's work [SIAM J. Control Optim., 55(2017), pp.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-11 Jinghai Shao , Fubao Xi

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-29 Sina Mews , Roland Langrock , Marius Ötting , Houda Yaqine , Jost Reinecke

In this paper we find asymptotic distribution for some unreliable networks. Using Markov Additive Structure and Adan, Foley, McDonald method, we find the exact asymptotic for the stationary distribution. With the help of MA structure and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-24 Pawel Lorek

We consider the challenge of efficiently detecting changes within a network of sensors, where we also need to minimise communication between sensors and the cloud. We propose an online, communication-efficient method to detect such changes.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-11 Ziyang Yang , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

In cyber-physical systems such as automobiles, measurement data from sensor nodes should be delivered to other consumer nodes such as actuators in a regular fashion. But, in practical systems over unreliable media such as wireless, it is a…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2015-04-14 Xueying Guo , Rahul Singh , P. R. Kumar , Zhisheng Niu

We develop a projected least squares estimator for the change point parameter in a high dimensional time series model with a potential change point. Importantly we work under the setup where the jump size may be near the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-19 Abhishek Kaul , Venkata K Jandhyala , Stergios B Fotopoulos