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In this paper we give a solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a multivariate L\'evy process consisting of both continuous (Gaussian) and jump components in the Bayesian approach. We do it for a general 0-modified…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-22 Michał Krawiec , Zbigniew Palmowski

Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-11 Ian Barnett

Given a times series ${\bf Y}$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$, with a piece-wise contant mean and independent components, the twin problems of change-point detection and change-point localization respectively amount to detecting the existence of times…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Nicolas Verzelen , Magalie Fromont , Matthieu Lerasle , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret

We consider the first exit time of a nonnegative Harris-recurrent Markov process from the interval $[0,A]$ as $A\to\infty$. We provide an alternative method of proof of asymptotic exponentiality of the first exit time (suitably…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-07 Moshe Pollak , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

This paper investigates a change-point estimation problem in the context of high-dimensional Markov Random Field models. Change-points represent a key feature in many dynamically evolving network structures. The change-point estimate is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Sandipan Roy , Yves Atchade , George Michailidis

In the regime of change-point detection, a nonparametric framework based on scan statistics utilizing graphs representing similarities among observations is gaining attention due to its flexibility and good performances for high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-16 Hoseung Song , Hao Chen

The filtering of a Markov diffusion process on a manifold from counting process observations leads to `large' changes in the conditional distribution upon an observed event, corresponding to a multiplication of the density by the intensity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-01 Simone Carlo Surace , Anna Kutschireiter , Jean-Pascal Pfister

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with applications across a wide variety of fields. In bioinformatics, a vast amount of methodology exists to identify an ideal set of change-points for…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-23 The-Minh Luong , Yves Rozenholc , Gregory Nuel

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Andrea Nigri , Marco Forti , Han Lin Shang

Change point detection in time series has attracted substantial interest, but most of the existing results have been focused on detecting change points in the time domain. This paper considers the situation where nonlinear time series have…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-22 Yan Cui , Jun Yang , Zhou Zhou

We study the multivariate nonparametric change point detection problem, where the data are a sequence of independent $p$-dimensional random vectors whose distributions are piecewise-constant with Lipschitz densities changing at unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-26 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d data, focuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Lei Xin , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

Consider the standard stochastic reaction network model where the dynamics is given by a continuous-time Markov chain over a discrete lattice. For such models, estimation of parameter sensitivities is an important problem, but the existing…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-05-01 Patrik Dürrenberger , Ankit Gupta , Mustafa Khammash

In this paper, Bayesian quickest change detection problems with sampling right constraints are considered. Specifically, there is a sequence of random variables whose probability density function will change at an unknown time. The goal is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-07-16 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

We consider the classical Shiryaev--Roberts martingale diffusion, $(R_t)_{t\ge0}$, restricted to the interval $[0,A]$, where $A>0$ is a preset absorbing boundary. We take yet another look at the well-known phenomenon of quasi-stationarity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-31 Soumik Banerjee , Aleksey S. Polunchenko

The problem of detecting a change in the drift of a Brownian motion is considered. The change point is assumed to have a modified exponential prior distribution with unknown parameters. A worst-case analysis with respect to these parameters…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Taposh Banerjee , George V. Moustakides

Non-stationary environments are challenging for reinforcement learning algorithms. If the state transition and/or reward functions change based on latent factors, the agent is effectively tasked with optimizing a behavior that maximizes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Lucas N. Alegre , Ana L. C. Bazzan , Bruno C. da Silva

This paper considers a sequence of random variables generated according to a common distribution. The distribution might undergo periods of transient changes at an unknown set of time instants, referred to as change-points. The objective is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-04-26 Javad Heydari , Ali Tajer

We study the problem of change point localization in dynamic networks models. We assume that we observe a sequence of independent adjacency matrices of the same size, each corresponding to a realization of an unknown inhomogeneous Bernoulli…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Daren Wang , Yi Yu , Alessandro Rinaldo