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Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is challenging due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts. While recent diffusion and flow matching models have shown promise, they often ignore…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Yanfeng Yang , Siwei Chen , Pingping Hu , Zhaotong Shen , Yingjie Zhang , Zhuoran Sun , Shuai Li , Ziqi Chen , Kenji Fukumizu

We extend generalized functional linear models under independence to a situation in which a functional covariate is related to a scalar response variable that exhibits spatial dependence-a complex yet prevalent phenomenon. For estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Sooran Kim , Mark S. Kaiser , Xiongtao Dai

Since survival data occur over time, often important covariates that we wish to consider also change over time. Such covariates are referred as time-dependent covariates. Quantile regression offers flexible modeling of survival data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-01 Malka Gorfine , Yair Goldberg , Yaacov Ritov

Quantile regression models provide a wide picture of the conditional distributions of the response variable by capturing the effect of the covariates at different quantile levels. In most applications, the parametric form of those…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-03 T. Rodrigues , J. -L. Dortet-Bernadet , Y. Fan

Learning models that can handle distribution shifts is a key challenge in domain generalization. Invariance learning, an approach that focuses on identifying features invariant across environments, improves model generalization by capturing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Yiran Jia , Jelena Bradic

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-09 Yoav Wald , Amir Globerson

In this paper, we revisit the notion of partial copula, originally introduced to test conditional independence, highlighting its capability to represent the dependence between two random variables after removing their dependence with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Vinícius Litvinoff Justus , Felipe Fontana Vieira

Prevalent in biomedical applications (e.g., human phenotype research), multimodal datasets can provide valuable insights into the underlying physiological mechanisms. However, current machine learning (ML) models designed to analyze these…

The general principles of Bayesian data analysis imply that models for survey responses should be constructed conditional on all variables that affect the probability of inclusion and nonresponse, which are also the variables used in survey…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-11-06 Andrew Gelman

A basic principle in the design of observational studies is to approximate the randomized experiment that would have been conducted under controlled circumstances. Now, linear regression models are commonly used to analyze observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Ambarish Chattopadhyay , Jose R. Zubizarreta

Hidden variable graphical models can sometimes imply constraints on the observable distribution that are more complex than simple conditional independence relations. These observable constraints can falsify assumptions of the model that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Michael C. Sachs , Erin E. Gabriel , Robin J. Evans , Arvid Sjölander

Analyses of randomised trials are often based on regression models which adjust for baseline covariates, in addition to randomised group. Based on such models, one can obtain estimates of the marginal mean outcome for the population under…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-17 Jonathan W. Bartlett

A general random effects model is proposed that allows for continuous as well as discrete distributions of the responses. Responses can be unrestricted continuous, bounded continuous, binary, ordered categorical or given in the form of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Gerhard Tutz

We define a model for the joint distribution of multiple continuous latent variables which includes a model for how their correlations depend on explanatory variables. This is motivated by and applied to social scientific research questions…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Siliang Zhang , Jouni Kuha , Fiona Steele

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend hierarchical dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

Motivated by investigating spatio-temporal patterns of the distribution of continuous variables, we consider describing the conditional distribution function of the response variable incorporating spatio-temporal components given…

Latent variable models are popularly used to measure latent factors (e.g., abilities and personalities) from large-scale assessment data. Beyond understanding these latent factors, the covariate effect on responses controlling for latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Jing Ouyang , Chengyu Cui , Kean Ming Tan , Gongjun Xu

Classical analysis of variance requires that model terms be labeled as fixed or random and typically culminate by comparing variability from each batch (factor) to variability from errors; without a standard methodology to assess the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-17 Steven Geinitz , Reinhard Furrer , Stephan R. Sain

Recent advances in neural variational inference have spawned a renaissance in deep latent variable models. In this paper we introduce a generic variational inference framework for generative and conditional models of text. While traditional…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2016-06-07 Yishu Miao , Lei Yu , Phil Blunsom

Multilevel or hierarchical data structures can occur in many areas of research, including economics, psychology, sociology, agriculture, medicine, and public health. Over the last 25 years, there has been increasing interest in developing…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Bernet S. Kato , Carel F. W. Peeters