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It is a fundamental question in epidemiology to estimate, model and predict the growth rate of a pandemic. Analogously, analysing the diffusion of innovation, (fake) news, memes, and rumours is of key importance in the social sciences. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Zylan Benjert , Júlia Komjáthy , Johannes Lengler , John Lapinskas , Ulysse Schaller

Proximity networks are time-varying graphs representing the closeness among humans moving in a physical space. Their properties have been extensively studied in the past decade as they critically affect the behavior of spreading phenomena…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-11-28 Fragkiskos Papadopoulos , Marco Antonio Rodríguez Flores

The endogenous adaptation of agents, that may adjust their local contact network in response to the risk of being infected, can have the perverse effect of increasing the overall systemic infectiveness of a disease. We study a dynamical…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-29 Alessio Muscillo , Paolo Pin , Tiziano Razzolini

The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-04-24 Anna Machens , Francesco Gesualdo , Caterina Rizzo , Alberto E Tozzi , Alain Barrat , Ciro Cattuto

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-08 Zhen Xu , Wen Dong , Sargur Srihari

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-15 Joaquín Sanz , Cheng-Yi Xia , Sandro Meloni , Yamir Moreno

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-04-09 Sebastian Risau-Gusman

The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-06-14 Alex Abbey , Yuval Shahar , Osnat Mokryn

Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread from person to person. Vaccination dramatically disrupts the disease transmission process on a contact network, and indeed, sufficiently…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-11-05 Ellsworth Campbell , Marcel Salathé

We are facing a common serious issue, infectious diseases, and trying to suppress the spreading of infection. We need less contact with each other to decrease the chance of infection, but this means loss of economic activity, as well. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-15 Kenichi Nakazato , Masanori Takano

Epidemic control is of great importance for human society. Adjusting interacting partners is an effective individualized control strategy. Intuitively, it is done either by shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-12-28 Bin Wu , Shanjun Mao , Jiazeng Wang , Da Zhou

Spreading dynamics has been considered to take place in temporal networks, where temporal interaction patterns between nodes show non-Poissonian bursty nature. The effects of inhomogeneous interevent times (IETs) on the spreading have been…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-10-18 Takayuki Hiraoka , Hang-Hyun Jo

We combine a pedestrian dynamics model with a contact tracing method to simulate the initial spreading of a highly infectious airborne disease in a confined environment. We focus on a medium size population (up to 1000 people) with a small…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-22 Krithika Rathinakumar , Annalisa Quaini

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Frank G Ball , Edward S Knock , Philip D O'Neill

The spread of a contagious disease clearly depends on when infected individuals come into contact with susceptible ones. Such effects, however, have remained largely unexplored in the study of epidemic outbreaks. In particular, it remains…

In many epidemiological and ecological contexts, there is a trade-off between infections and interactions. This arises because the links between individuals capable of spreading infections are also often associated with beneficial…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-04 Bunlang Thatchai , Christopher E. Overton , Thomas House

Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-03-25 Luis Enrique Correa Rocha , Vincent D. Blondel

Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Franco Flandoli , Francesco Grotto , Andrea Papini , Cristiano Ricci

How can we model influence between individuals in a social system, even when the network of interactions is unknown? In this article, we review the literature on the "influence model," which utilizes independent time series to estimate how…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-02-28 Wei Pan , Manuel Cebrian , Wen Dong , Taemie Kim , James Fowler , Alex Pentland

The spread of an infectious disease can be promoted by previous infections with other pathogens. This cooperative effect can give rise to violent outbreaks, reflecting the presence of an abrupt epidemic transition. As for other diffusive…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-02-06 Peng-Bi Cui , Francesca Colaiori , Claudio Castellano
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